Jim Moore: Could the middling Seahawks make a playoff run? Sure — or they could crumble

I know it’s probably more fun to read a column that’s filled with hope and optimism when it comes to any topic but especially the Seahawks. They’ve been winners for nearly 10 years, so we’ve become used to playoff appearances and a chance to win the Super Bowl every season since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012.

So let’s start with the sunshine and lollipops. Looking at the Seahawks’ schedule and chances for making the playoffs, even with a 3-5 record right now, I’d say they’ve got a reasonable shot at the postseason again.

This could happen for three reasons:

1) The first five playoff spots will most certainly belong to three 7-1 teams — Green Bay, Arizona and the Rams — along with the 6-1 Cowboys and the 6-2 Buccaneers. But the next two spots are wide open and within the Seahawks’ reach.

The Saints might be 5-2, but they lost Jameis Winston for the season with a torn ACL in a win over the Bucs last Sunday. Carolina is 4-4 and currently holds the seventh and final playoff berth, but no one expects the Panthers to tear it up in the second half of the season with Sam Darnold at quarterback.

Look at the teams that are trying to chase down the Saints and Panthers: a bunch of subpar teams, including the Seahawks, all with losing records. Do you look at the 3-4 Falcons or 3-4 Bears and think they’re better than the Seahawks? Or how about the 3-5 teams that are tied with them? Chicago and Philadelphia? Of course not.

2) The Seahawks’ remaining schedule features two games that should be locks (Detroit and Houston), three games they should win (Washington, Chicago and San Francisco) and four games where they’ll be underdogs — two against Arizona, one at the Rams and next week’s game at Green Bay. Best case is 10-7, but they could go 9-8 and still get the seventh playoff spot.

3) If he doesn’t return from his finger injury against the Packers, Russell Wilson will most assuredly return the following week when the Seahawks host the Cardinals. Of all of the so-so teams on the outside looking in at the playoffs, as well as New Orleans and Carolina, Wilson is clearly the best quarterback in the chase.

If they make it in, the Seahawks will have played really well down the stretch, in position to turn that momentum into a possible Super Bowl run. After all, wild-card teams have won the Lombardi Trophy before.

OK, stop it already. Let’s move on to the more likely scenario where reality and objectivity trump pipe dreams. The Seahawks are more apt to go 5-4 the rest of the way and finish 8-9. Even with Wilson returning? Yes. They were 2-3 in games he started before injuring his finger.

And about that finger. It’s the latest example of the disconnect between Wilson and Pete Carroll. When the Seahawks’ coach met with the media earlier this week, he wasn’t aware that Wilson had the pin removed from his finger. He probably found out the way the rest of us did, via photos on Wilson’s Twitter timeline that were posted an hour after Carroll’s press conference.

Wilson tweeted: “No more pin. Time to Win.”

You might say: “Big deal. So what if the coach didn’t know about the latest development with Wilson’s middle finger?”

And I’d say: “Don’t you think the coach, under normal circumstances, would have first-hand knowledge of something like that?” I don’t blame Carroll for that as much as Wilson.

I don’t know this for a fact and I don’t have sources telling me there’s a falling out between head coach and franchise quarterback, but haven’t we seen the signs for quite some time now?

Last year when we first heard the phrase “Let Russ cook” and soon got sick of it but appreciated what Wilson was doing when he threw passes all over the lot, Carroll went back to his old philosophy of taking better care of the ball. Let’s face it, he’s always going to prefer running over passing even if he tells us publicly that he favors balance in his offense.

Personally, even though he knows a hell of a lot more about football than I do, I’d argue as many have that he should take his chances with the best quarterback in franchise history throwing to two of the best receivers in franchise history in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Seems to me that going airborne gives the Seahawks a better opportunity at achieving their Super Bowl goals than emphasizing a ground game that hasn’t been good with Alex Collins and particularly Rashaad Penny, and wasn’t even all that terrific with Chris Carson before he suffered a neck injury.

I fully get how running the ball sets up the passing game, but as much as Carson could give the Seahawks a lift if he returns next week against Green Bay, I’d rather see Russ cooking again. As long as Carroll’s the coach, that’s not going to happen.

For awhile I think Wilson went along with his head coach. But when the consistent winning disappeared, the relationship began to fracture. I get the feeling they’re not only not on the same page, they’re not even in the same library.

I wouldn’t call this the new normal as much as the new abnormal. And I think we’re really going to see it run its course in the next two months. We’ve got a conservative coach working with a supposedly new-age offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, and the conservative coach can’t quite bring himself to completely turn the offense over to the new guy in town.

And Wilson’s no doubt more on board with Waldron than Carroll. This figures to end poorly. Waldron might be the latest offensive coordinator scapegoat, shipped out of town like Brian Schottenheimer was last year.

I don’t care if Carroll signed a five-year contract extension last year — this Pete and Russ marriage is headed toward a divorce at the end of the season. If the Seahawks don’t make the playoffs, it will be the seventh consecutive year they fell short of an appearance in the Super Bowl, and when you have a quarterback the caliber of Wilson, that’s your goal each season.

I’m probably getting ahead of myself, and if I’m wrong I’ll own it, but signs point to a major change at the end of the year with Wilson staying and Carroll going.

Jim Moore has covered Washington’s sports scene from every angle for multiple news outlets. You can find him on Twitter @cougsgo, and on 950 KJR-AM, where he co-hosts a sports talk show from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on weekdays.

This story was originally published November 5, 2021 at 11:25 AM.