Jim Moore: Is Geno Smith really worth the money the Seahawks just agreed to pay him?
When I first saw reports that the Seahawks signed Geno Smith to a three-year, $105 million contract, I thought it was ridiculous. Even understanding that the Seahawks could get out of the deal in the second or third year, it still seemed awfully pricey to me.
But Tuesday morning, Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network Tweeted that Geno’s base salary is three years for $75 million with $40 million guaranteed. Garafolo also noted that Smith will earn $28 million in 2023 and has $30 million in incentives.
OK, fine, that seems more like a team AND player friendly deal with the Seahawks rewarding and retaining a quarterback who had a surprisingly good season while Geno hits the lottery after making $7 million last year.
I didn’t want to see the Seahawks use the franchise tag on him, which would have required them to pay Smith $32.4 million this season. I also didn’t think he was worth $30 million, but $25 million a season in a QB market where Derek Carr found a $150 million, four-year deal in New Orleans, well, that seems just about right.
Keeping in mind that the Saints have an exit strategy too, one that drastically reduces the top end of the reported contract, Carr completed 61 percent of his passes with the Raiders last year, throwing for 3,522 yards with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Smith completed 70 percent of his passes for 4,282 yards with 30 TDs and 11 interceptions.
Granted, Carr has a longer resume in the league, but based on the most recent season, Smith’s agent could have made a strong case to hold out for a bigger contract.
On the flip side, I think the Seahawks could have gotten Smith to re-sign at a much cheaper rate than $25 million a season. I wondered how it must have gone behind closed doors. General manager John Schneider probably didn’t want to disrespect Geno by offering something in the neighborhood of $20 million a year. And Geno probably didn’t want to gouge the Seahawks after saying he essentially wanted to give the team a hometown discount after the club had been so good to him over the years and given him the starting opportunity last year.
I just don’t think it would have been that big of a risk if the Seahawks had allowed Geno to explore his free-agent options. In my mind, he had some but not many. With Carr signing in New Orleans, the Saints were out. The Jets appear to be zeroing in on Aaron Rodgers.
That left four teams that needed QBs - Tampa Bay, Carolina, Washington and Las Vegas - minus Houston and Indianapolis, which are expected to select quarterbacks in the first four picks of the NFL draft.
Tampa Bay seemed unlikely. Can you imagine building a season ticket drive around Geno Smith after having Tom Brady at quarterback?
It’s also hard to picture a bidding war developing among Carolina, Washington and Las Vegas for Smith. Maybe I’m wrong about that, but it feels like Smith would have been disappointed in the offers elsewhere and come scampering back to Seattle to see what Schneider had in mind. At that point, I’m thinking $20 million a year would have sounded pretty damn good.
In spite of what they’d been saying about contract negotiations going well with Geno, the Seahawks surprised me. Heading into the offseason, I thought they might consider inexpensive stopgap options in free agency while selecting the future franchise guy with the No. 5 pick, be it Will Levis or Anthony Richardson or maybe even Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
I figured Pete Carroll would think he could get adequate production with another quarterback at a much cheaper rate than Smith. Drew Lock appeared to be a likely candidate, but now we’ll never know if he was good enough to be a franchise QB in Seattle or a bust like he was in Denver.
Heck, you could have talked me into Jimmy Garoppolo or other free agents such Taylor Heinicke, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold or Cooper Rush. Same goes for Gardner Minshew, but my Coug bias might have had something to do with that.
I know those free agents aren’t as good as Geno - aside perhaps from Garoppolo - but they could have been bang-for-your-buck short-term QBs while you groomed the player you took at No. 5 and used the savings to shore up your subpar defense.
The Seahawks think they’ve got the best of both worlds, a quarterback who can take them to the Super Bowl on a contract that won’t limit improvements they need to make with other parts of their team.
How strongly do they believe in Geno? We’ll find out next month when the Seahawks announce their selection with the fifth pick - a quarterback or a game changer on the defensive line.
Jim Moore has covered Washington’s sports scene from every angle for multiple news outlets. You can find him on Twitter @cougsgo, and on KJR-FM 93.3, where he co-hosts a sports talk show from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. on weekdays.