Champions’ send-off for Huskies to Houston. A Michigan scouting report — from a Wolverine
The Washington Huskies departed their UW campus with a champions-like send-off.
They arrived hours later in Houston on Friday night for the national championship game exactly as they’ve been most of this historical season.
As under-Dawgs.
They are 14-0. They had quarterback Michael Penix throw for more than 4,600 yards and more than 30 touchdowns again this season. They have an All-American wide receiver in Rome Odunze. Kalen DeBoer just became the first UW coach to be named national coach of the year by the Associated Press. They have won 21 games in a row.
Despite all that: The Huskies are 4 1/2-point underdogs to 14-0 Michigan for the College Football Playoff title game Monday night, per Las Vegas oddsmakers.
Washington was ranked second in the College Football Playoff rankings that determined who made the four-team tournament to win it all. Michigan, champion of the Big Ten Conference UW will join next season, was ranked first.
The Huskies’ precise, dart-throwing quarterback can’t wait for this chance to win Washington’s first national title since 1991.
“I’m super excited for the opportunity,” Penix said. “But we’re just going to continue to prepare the same way that we do each and every week.
“We know that we have what it takes to be able to come out with a W. We’ve just got to go out there, execute and do it.”
This is the fourth time in their last five games the Huskies haven’t been favored to win.
Texas was a 3 1/2-point pick in the Sugar Bowl; the Huskies won 37-31 New Year’s Night in New Orleans. Oregon was a 10-point favorite to beat Washington in the Pac-12 championship game last month. UW won that night in Las Vegas 34-31. The “experts” had Oregon State favored to beat the Huskies in Corvallis Nov. 18. Penix to Odunze on a key third-down pass late in a pouring rain sealed the same result as all Washington games this season.
A victory.
“We prove everybody wrong, time and time again. And we’ll continue to do that,” rush end Bralen Trice said at the Superdome this past Monday night, after he was named the defensive most valuable player of the Huskies’ Sugar Bowl win over favored Texas for three huge plays that stopped Longhorns drives in the second half.
“And this is what we do as Dawgs, at U Dub up in Seattle. We’re bred for this. We prepare for this.
“And you can overlook us all you want, but we go out there and we prove everybody wrong every time.”
Michigan’s test of UW
Michigan got to Houston earlier Friday afternoon — and by beating Alabama, champion of the almighty Southeastern Conference, in overtime at the Rose Bowl New Year’s Day.
The key match-up of this national championship game is the Wolverines’ defense, ranked first in total defense in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 243 yards allowed per game, against Washington’s top-ranked passing offense (350 yards passing per game).
Specifically, the pivotal showdown is Michigan’s pass rush against UW’s offensive line. Washington’s starting five blockers recently earned the Joe Moore Award given annually to college football’s best offensive line. A nine-person voting committee chose Washington’s O-line — left tackle Troy Fautanu, left guard Nate Kalepo, center Parker Brailsford, right guard Julius Buelow and right tackle Roger Rosengarten — over finalists Georgia, LSU and Oregon. Michigan’s line won the Joe Moore Award each of the past two seasons.
In the Rose Bowl this past week, Michigan’s coaches led by head man Jim Harbaugh targeted the weakest part of Alabama’s team: its inexperienced offensive line. The Wolverines entered the national semifinal game blitzing 24.4% of the time this season. In the Rose Bowl, they blitzed Alabama on 42.9% of snaps.
The result: Michigan sacked Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe six times and held the Crimson Tide to 116 yards passing and 20 points to win.
“That’s a good team over there. They’re coached up very well,” Penix said. “But we’re going to be ready for the challenge. They mix up the picture quite a bit. They try to get the quarterback off his mark.
“But we’ll be ready for it. We know that.”
A Michigan scouting report—from a Wolverine
Jake Butt won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end for Harbaugh and Michigan in 2016. Butt is now the lead game analyst for the Big Ten Network.
He says what makes this Wolverines’ defense — styled in an attack mode up the middle after that of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens, coached by Harbaugh’s older brother John — so effective is the versatility in how Michigan pressures quarterbacks.
“When you think about this Michigan team, it’s the multiple ways they can pressure you,” Butt told The News Tribune Friday by telephone from his home in Chicago, before he departed for Houston and Monday’s game.
“They can pressure you with their front four. They can pressure you with blitzing.”
Butt said what makes Washington dangerous is how well Penix throws and UW’s line blocks against blitzes. So Michigan, Butt thinks, won’t take exactly the same, heavier-blitzing approach it had against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Penix has beaten blitzes, four-man rushes, everything and everyone dating to 2022.
Penix this season has completed 60.5% of his passes (107 of 177) for 1,602 yards, 13 of his 35 total passing touchdowns against just four interceptions when he’s been blitzed. That’s per Pro Football Focus.
Conversely, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy relies on running back Blake Corum’s game-changing rushes to throw effectively in play-action off them. Jim Harbaugh, a former Wolverines and NFL QB, has said McCarthy is the best quarterback in Michigan’s history. McCarthy has completed 45% of his throws versus blitzes, for 1,014 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions, per PFF.
Penix was 11 for 16 for 164 yards when Texas blitzed him in the Sugar Bowl, per PFF. The Longhorns relied on their two NFL-ready, stud defensive tackles in a four-man rush against Penix on his 22 other drop backs.
Texas did not sack Penix once. He threw for 430 yards (the second-most in CFP semifinals history) with two touchdowns. Showing his ability to extend plays and still complete big passes, Penix repeatedly avoided Texas’ front linemen for completions.
Butt said the strength of Michigan’s defensive front is like that of Texas’, the interior linemen. Wolverines senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins (94 in blue on your television screens in the game Monday night) is considered by many scouts to be a first- or second-round pick in the next NFL draft this spring.
“Washington has Penix. They have the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. They are phenomenal,” Butt said.
“I expect to see both from Michigan: blitzing and a four-man rush.”
Butt says the Wolverines will be wary of leaving their pass coverage with fewer players because of blitzing. It would give Washington’s elite group of wide receivers Odunze, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk and Germie Bernard more chances to potentially burn them. McMillan and Polk caught Penix’s touchdown passes in the Sugar Bowl.
“You don’t want to leave yourself too vulnerable in the back end in coverage, if you’re Michigan,” Butt said.
Butt also said this about how Michigan’s defense played against Alabama in the Rose Bowl: “Some of the mistakes Michigan made last week aren’t going to cut it.
“If you pressure Penix too much, he’s going to make you pay.”
This story was originally published January 5, 2024 at 4:21 PM.
