Success for the Seahawks hinges on one thing, and it’s not the quarterback

The Seattle Seahawks do not have the best quarterback in the NFC West.

In fact, if a draft were held, Sam Darnold would probably be the last of the division’s four starters to be selected.

Seattle doesn’t have the easiest schedule, either.

That would be the Seahawks’ Week 1 opponent, San Francisco, which gets to play the Browns, Bears and Giants. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will face the Steelers, Vikings and the team whose nickname used to be an epithet (Washington).

I think Seattle will have the best defense in the division, though, and that is actually the most important thing with regard to this franchise’s future. It’s also why I believe the Seahawks are going to win the NFC West, but we’ll get to that in just a second.

First, I’d like to address the elephant in the room or, in this case, under center.

This past March, the Seahawks signed Darnold to replace Geno Smith at quarterback. Darnold is a former top-five pick who is now on his fifth team. I do not believe Darnold is better than Smith. I don’t think he’s substantively worse, either.

Last year in Minnesota, Darnold played his best football since entering the league only to skid out at the end. He was 18-for-41 passing in a Week 17 loss in Detroit, which decided the division. He took nine sacks in a 31-9 thumping at the hands of the Rams in the playoffs.

It’s possible that Darnold will take a step forward this season and become Seattle’s long-term starter. I don’t think that’s the most likely result, however, and while I know most of the next four months will be spent scrutinizing Darnold’s performance, it’s actually the defense that will be a much better indicator of where this franchise is headed.

Here’s why I say that:

If Darnold struggles or even if he goes .500 as a starter, the Seahawks can revisit the depth chart before next season. By drafting Jalen Milroe in the third round, Seattle is already lining up a potential alternative.

If the defense stinks, though, I’m not sure how it’s possible to fix that AND continue adding to an offense that traded its top receiver (D.K. Metcalf), its starting quarterback (Smith) and cut its first-string tight end (Noah Fant) over the offseason.

This defense needs to be the bedrock if Seattle is actually building toward something more than being a middling team that goes one-and-done in the playoffs every other year.

There was a time when Seattle was known for its defense. You just have to go back a ways to find it: Nov. 9, 2017. That was a Thursday in Arizona when the Seahawks beat the Cardinals in what turned out to be the final game that Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril ever played for the team.

Seattle’s defense has been rebuilt at least twice since then. The Seahawks changed defensive coordinators three times. In all that time Seattle has never been anything better than average on that side of the ball, and there have been multiple seasons in that period when the defense has been demonstrably putrid.

That changed last season. At least it did in the second half of the year after the Seahawks traded for middle linebacker Ernest Jones and promoted Tyrice Knight to the starting lineup. Suddenly, new head coach Mike Macdonald had the pieces he needed for his scheme.

Through the first nine games, Seattle allowed 139.4 yards rushing per game and 24.6 points. Over the final eight, that declined to 96.3 yards rushing and 18.4 points as it became clear why Macdonald’s scheme has posed a problem even for big-brained playcallers like the Niners Kyle Shanahan and the Rams Sean McVay.

That’s why Seattle hired Macdonald, to bring an approach and a plan that would revitalize the Seahawks defense if not resurrect it in a division that had become known for the new age offenses in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

Are the Seahawks ready to do that in Macdonald’s second season?

I think they are. I think they’re going to be a top-five defense in the league. If they had a better quarterback, I’d argue they should be considered a legitimate contender in the NFC. They’re still a year away from that, though, and I’d feel the same way even if the Seahawks brought back Smith.

The Seahawks still have time to locate a final answer at quarterback provided the defense is not just solid, but strong.

That’s why Seattle’s defense is so important this season not just with regard a potential return to the playoffs, but the bigger picture.

The Seahawks needs to be pretty good on that side of the ball to think they’ll be anywhere close to challenging for championship in the near future.

Danny O’Neil was born in Oregon, the son of a logger, but had the good sense to attend college in Washington. He’s covered Seattle sports for 20 years, writing for two newspapers, one glossy magazine and hosting a daily radio show for eight years on KIRO 710 AM. You can subscribe to his free newsletter and find his other work at dannyoneil.com.