The bruised 49ers lost to Seattle 2 weeks ago - should Seahawks fans worry?

Scale of 1 to 10, what’s your concern level for the Seahawks in their divisional round playoff game against the 49ers Saturday night?

Really? It’s that high?

Come on, they’re the Seahawks, not the Mariners; they have a history of doing well in the playoffs, particularly as the No. 1 seed with the home-field advantage.

In the three previous times the Seahawks were the top seed in the NFC, they went 6-0 in playoff games at home and advanced to the Super Bowl. Why should it be any different this year?

I’m more into betting lines and odds than breaking things down in analytical or X’s and O’s fashion, partly because that stuff bores me, partly because I’m incapable of understanding anything about gap integrity and defensive schemes.

Forget two deeps and Cover 2, I prefer to use something called two eyes, which allow me to watch games and read things on the Internet that are pertinent to determining the likelihood of playoff outcomes.

Let’s start with this: The Seahawks are favored by 7 1/2 points over the 49ers for good reason, many good reasons actually.

According to the AI bots I consulted this morning, NFL teams favored by 7 1/2 points or more win their games 74 percent of the time.

AI also says there’s a far greater chance of an easy Seahawks’ win by eight or more points than one in which they lose or only win by a few points.

But the odds change a little in playoff games with history showing that 7 1/2-point underdogs win 35 percent of the time.

Then again, here’s what the bots aren’t considering with Saturday’s game at Lumen Field - the 49ers arrive as a battered squad on a short week after beating the defending champion Eagles on Sunday. And as you know, they’re also the same team the Seahawks suffocated in a 13-3 win two weeks ago.

What exactly suggests they’re suddenly going to become a bigger challenge for a team with the league’s best defense that is rested and healthy in comparison?

The Seahawks are 12-4 all-time in home playoff games, winning 10 of their last 11. They’re 3-0 in divisional round home games but only one, against Carolina in 2014, was a breeze. They had to claw and scratch in their other divisional round games, beating the Saints 23-15 in 2013 and Washington 20-10 in 2005.

Since 2020 when the NFL increased the number of playoff teams from 12 to 14, only three out of 10 No., 1 seeds failed to reach the conference championship game. The Lions lost in the divisional round last year, and the Packers and Titans were eliminated this week in 2021.

If I’m a 49ers’ fan, I’m leaning hard into counterpoints that fuel my wishful thinking followed by my more rational thoughts in parentheses:

* In the last game in Santa Clara, the 49ers played without injured left tackle Trent Williams, who returned against the Eagles and is expected to play against the Seahawks, strengthening San Francisco’s pass protection and possibly helping its run game too.

(Williams’ return could end up being insignificant - Christian McCaffrey averaged only 3 yards a carry when Williams played in the 49ers’ first game in Seattle, and San Francisco scored just 17 points.)

* Brock Purdy is 4-0 against the Seahawks in Seattle.

(Purdy normally has issues against a Mike Macdonald defense and would have been 3-1 were it not for a Sam Darnold fumble inside the 49ers’ 10-yard line in the final minute of the season opener.)

* Ricky Pearsall, another injured 49er, might play this week and he adds a weapon that partially compensates for the loss of George Kittle to a torn Achilles against the Eagles. Pearsall had seven receptions for 108 yards against the Seahawks in a 17-13 win in the first game of the season.

(I like Pearsall, but at less than 100 percent against that Seahawks’ secondary, do you really expect him to be the difference between a 49ers’ loss and a 49ers’ win?)

* Demarcus Robinson had a breakout game in Philadelphia with six catches for 111 yards and a touchdown, further bolstering the 49ers’ receiving crew.

(Robinson is also a guy who had only 22 catches for 276 yards during the regular season. It’s more likely that was a one-off against the Eagles instead of the start of a trend.)

* Come on, it’s a rivalry game between two division opponents, and aren’t intra-division matchups typically close? And if they’re typically close, won’t it be anyone’s game in the last two minutes?

(It wasn’t anyone’s game in the last two minutes in Santa Clara, was it?)

* Kyle Shanahan has done a fantastic job this season, guiding the decimated 49ers to a 13-5 record. Surely, he’ll make some adjustments and add wrinkles that will spark the Niners and turn this third meeting of the year into a nerve-racking rubber match.

(Niner fans, I’m going to have to give you this one - it should be a Seahawks fan’s biggest concern.)

* Hey, we had Sam Darnold as a backup to Purdy in 2023 - he wasn’t any great shakes then, and doesn’t he have a reputation for blowing it in big games? Like last year in the wild-card round, wasn’t he sacked nine times by the Rams? Playoff Sam might be a bust compared to Regular Season Sam.

(Yeah, you’re right, Darnold did have that reputation, but he took the first steps toward changing that in a 38-37 win over the Rams and his mistake-free performance against you guys two weeks ago. But fair enough, we’ll have to see if Playoff Sam can operate like the Regular Season Sam who led his teams to 28 victories the last two years).

* The 49ers’ beleaguered defense played well in Philadelphia, holding the Eagles to 19 points and stopping what could have been a game-winning drive in the final minute.

(Have you seen the Eagles’ offense this season? Not exactly a high-powered unit. The Seahawks are better equipped on that side of the ball.)

However you size it up, the Seahawks will come out on top by one point or 20 points based on all of my shallow-dive data. Super Bowl favorites like they are don’t normally lose their first playoff game, especially when they’re expected to win by a touchdown or more. That’s why my concern level is a 1 or a 2 and yours should be too.

Jim Moore has covered Washington’s sports scene from every angle for multiple news outlets. He appears Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays at 10 a.m. on Jason Puckett’s podcast at PuckSports.com. He writes a Substack blog at jimmoorethego2guy.substack.com. You can find him on X (formerly Twitter) @cougsgo.

This story was originally published January 13, 2026 at 11:12 AM.