Expert Boxers Share Predictions for Inoue vs. Nakatani Title Fight This Saturday

The Tokyo Dome will host the biggest all-Japanese boxing showdown in history this Saturday as Naoya Inoue defends his undisputed super-bantamweight crown against undefeated three-division champion Junto Nakatani. The clash has drawn predictions from across the boxing world, including predictions from the men who have faced these elite fighters themselves.

Without further ado, here are predictions from four fighters, some of whom have shared the ring with the two shining stars of Japanese boxing.

Nonito Donaire

Nonito Donaire knows Inoue's power better than almost anyone, having fractured Inoue's orbital bone in their 2019 classic before being stopped in their 2022 rematch.

The Filipino legend shared his analysis with Ring Magazine:

Donaire acknowledges that Nakatani's three-inch height advantage creates a genuine tactical barrier. However, he sees a specific vulnerability in the challenger's defensive habits.

"Inoue has that power, has that speed to cut down the distance, and that could be a big problem for Nakatani," Donaire explained. "Not only that, but the body shots. Being the taller guy, you're very vulnerable to being hit with body shots, especially coming from a guy like Inoue who has the power, who has the speed, and who has the distance management to close it."

The former four-division champion is riding the fence on who to pick, and believes the fight hinges on who imposes their rhythm first.

"Both guys, I believe, have the ability to beat the other guy," Donaire stated firmly. "Will it be a passing of the torch? There's a possibility of that."

Jorge Linares

The three-division champion, who has shared the ring with some of boxing's finest and established his career in Japan, delivers the most stunning prediction.

"I've always been a big fan of Inoue, but I think this is Nakatani's moment," he told ESPN. "I think it'll go the distance, but anything can happen, like a knockdown. Most likely, Inoue's going down."

Linares believes Nakatani's length will pose a difficult puzzle for Inoue to solve.

"Nakatani should be using his lead jab and left-handed counterpunches a lot more," he advised. "Nakatani is a southpaw, and Inoue doesn't really like fighting left-handers."

"This is a tough fight to predict - honestly, it's 50-50 - and the first time I've seriously questioned whether Inoue could lose," he admitted to ESPN.

Alexandro Santiago

Former bantamweight champion Alexandro Santiago fought Nakatani in 2024 and understands the southpaw's tricky style. Santiago believes Nakatani's length poses a genuine threat.

"The times Inoue has been knocked down, it's been by fighters in a southpaw stance," Santiago told ESPN.

Santiago advises Inoue to apply relentless pressure rather than boxing from the outside.

"I think Inoue shouldn't wait around but go on the offensive - and do it carefully, very carefully," he said.

He draws from his own experience fighting Nakatani, noting, "The key is to close that gap on Nakatani and start landing punches."

Santiago ultimately leans toward the champion. "The fight could go either way, because Nakatani hits hard too.

Santiago says, "He might land a shot on Inoue, but Inoue is also very, very smart and could end the fight as well. I'm going with Inoue."

Ramon Cardenas

Ramon Cardenas holds a distinction few can claim of being in the ring with both Naoya Inoue and Junto Nakatani. He fought Inoue back in 2025 and is one of Nakatani's training partners.

Cardenas holds an even rarer achievement of knocking down Inoue in their 2025 clash, with a left hand. Inoue rose and stopped Cardenas, but the knockdown proved that "The Monster" can be hurt (full fight via TopRank on YouTube):

"I've been blessed enough to be in the ring with both," he told Ring Magazine. "I know that Junto and I sparred exactly 99 rounds because everything was documented."

Cardenas' achievement offers Nakatani a potential blueprint, as both men are southpaws. The knockdown came from a left-handed shot - Nakatani's specialty.

Inoue has now been dropped twice in his super-bantamweight run, first by Luis Nery and then by Cardenas. Both knockdowns came from left hands.

Speaking of his training partner, he says, "Junto is very good at using his range. When I fought Inoue, I said going in that I had to be perfect for 36 minutes. But for Junto, I feel that it could be a 50-50 fight."

He also gave props to Inoue, saying, "He has great timing, he adjusts and knows when to push on the gas pedal, and when to back off. It's not just one-punch power that is the problem when you're facing Inoue; it's the accumulation of the punches that catch up."

He also believes that his and Nery's knockdown of Inoue might not be replicated due to Inoue's ability to adjust and improve.

"It's going to be difficult for Junto to drop Inoue with the overhand left the same way Luis Nery and I did because Inoue is expecting it, one hundred percent," he said.

Like Donaire, however, Cardenas is riding the fence and has not shared his prediction.

"I want to avoid saying who's the better fighter or who will win, because it's damned if I do, damned if I don't, no matter what I have to say," Cardenas explained.

"I'll keep who I actually think will win to myself. The best answer I can give is that boxing will win," he said. "This is the kind of fight that boxing needs. The top guys, the best fighting the best."

Inoue Remains The Betting Favorite

Despite the varying expert opinions, the betting markets heavily favor Inoue, with outlets like BETOnline listing Inoue and Nakatani at -400 and +284, respectively. FanDuel also lists Inoue as a -410 favorite, with Nakatani a +320 underdog.

"The Monster" is coming off consecutive decision wins for the first time in his career, having gone the distance against Murodjon Akhmadaliev and David Picasso.

Whether that indicates a more cautious Inoue or simply better and bigger opposition remains the central question heading into Saturday's historic Tokyo Dome showdown.

It should also be noted, however, that Nakatani is newer to the 122 lb. weight class, and he had an incredibly close fight against Sebastian Hernandez last December.

Who do you think will win?

Copyright 2026 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved

This story was originally published April 30, 2026 at 4:25 PM.