Fantasy Basketball 2026-27: Second-Half Surges That Will Carry Into Next Season

There's no crystal ball to let managers know the best players to add to their 2026-27 fantasy basketball draft boards. Lucky for them, there are late-season surges that help predict the future.

Several players got hot and found their stride late in the 2025-26 season. Usage increases and efficiency gains made them second-half studs. These factors can also help predict the following year's production.

Which players will take their second-half heaters in the 2026-27 campaign? Here are the variables you need to know and the fantasy risers you should be aware of.

Why These Second-Half Surges Are Likely to Carry Over

Fantasy spikes start with securing a starting role. Whether it's due to injured teammates, trades, or a new starting five beginning to gel. Steady minutes open the door for more opportunities, and the players who made our list took full advantage of those opportunities in the second half.

They also maintained high efficiency and usage to end the regular season, whether their team made the playoffs or not. Sustained efficiency shows that their hot streak is more than just a fluke and that it can carry into 2026-27.

Second-Half Surges That Will Carry Into 2026-27

Moussa Diabate (Hornets)

Diabate went from averaging 17.5 minutes per game last season to playing almost 30 minutes per night in the second half of 2026. That led to increased points and rebounds, including four double-doubles in the final six games in March. Plus, his stocks per game (1.8 on the season) remained steady with his increased offense. That should be more than enough to secure a starting spot over Ryan Kalkbrenner next season.

Desmond Bane (Magic)

The guard was inconsistent in his first few months in Orlando, but found his stride after the trade deadline. He ended February with a staggering 49.3 shooting percentage from beyond the arc, and maintained efficient three-pointers, field goals, and free throws through the end of the season. Bane maintained solid rebounding (4.1 RPG) and assists (4.1 APG) while playing 33.6 minutes per night, which was second only to teammate Paolo Banchero. That mix of efficiency and consistency will earn him more minutes next season.

Amen Thompson (Rockets)

Houston ultimately fell short against Los Angeles in the first round of the NBA playoffs, but that wasn't Thompson's fault. He led the Rockets with 5.7 assists in the postseason after leading the regular season with 1.5 steals. He was a top contributor in the final two months of the regular season thanks to his multi-cat production. His eight double-doubles between March and April didn't hurt either in solidifying him as a key starter looking ahead to the 2026-27 season.

Cooper Flagg (Mavericks)

Remember, the 2026 Rookie of the Year had a slow start to his freshman season, even missing time due to injury. But boy did he make himself Dallas' anchor by the end of the second half. Flagg's 9-cat production is undeniable, as he adds scoring to solid rebounding (6.7), assists (4.5), and stocks (2.1). He's also reportedly polishing up his offense for next season, which means fantasy gains for managers who draft him properly.

Actionable 2026-27 Draft & Waiver Strategy

When and How to Acquire These Players

ADPs for these players will vary, but they are all generally second and third-round picks with high upside. Yes, even Flagg is considered more of a high-upside second-rounder than a guaranteed first-round pick.

Fantasy managers in dynasty leagues can get an early start on securing these fantasy assets before their ADPs rise. Meanwhile, owners in redraft formats should target these players early but also keep an eye on the NBA Draft and free agency for major roster shakeups.

These risers can carry their efficiency into the 2026-27 season. Securing them early can pay dividends when the 2026-27 season gets underway.

QuestionsAbout Second-Half Surges, Answered

Which players had the strongest second-half surges in 2025-26?

The players highlighted in the report posted elite efficiency and usage gains in the second half that are expected to carry over.

How reliable are second-half surges for predicting the next season?

Historical data shows late-season usage and efficiency gains are often highly predictive when roles stabilize.

Should I reach for these second-half surge players in 2026-27 drafts?

Yes - within reason. The article provides specific draft-round targets and value ranges.

Are there risks with betting on second-half surge carryovers?

Yes - injury risk, scheme fit uncertainty, and potential regression if the surge was matchup-specific. The report includes risk-management notes.

When is the best time to target these players?

Early in drafts or on the waiver wire before their breakout becomes obvious to the rest of your league.

How do second-half surges typically perform in the following season?

Many players sustain or improve upon their late-season efficiency when given consistent opportunity under favorable conditions.

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This story was originally published May 5, 2026 at 5:54 PM.