Sports

Early Bust Candidates Fantasy Managers Should Think Twice About

By Sam Amico Athlon Sports

Updated July 14, 2026 5:59 AM

Let's get one thing out of the way: This isn't a bust list.

I'm not saying these players are going to have bad seasons. I'm saying I'd think twice before drafting them where I expect them to come off the board.

There's a difference.

Sometimes talent isn't the issue. Sometimes it's the situation. Sometimes it's the uncertainty. Sometimes it's simply paying too much for a player before all the questions have been answered.

Here are five names I'd approach carefully heading into the 2026-27 fantasy season.

Domantas Sabonis and Jalen Duren

Too Much Uncertainty for Me

I'm putting these two together because their fantasy outlooks are tied together.

If the reported sign-and-trade talks between Sacramento and Detroit go through, both players suddenly have new situations to figure out.

If they don't? Their fantasy outlooks probably stay pretty close to where they are now.

That's a lot of uncertainty for draft season.

Personally, I don't love using an early pick on players whose roles could change overnight.

I'll gladly revisit both once everything settles. Until then, somebody else can take that gamble.

Tyrese Maxey

The Ball Has to Go Somewhere

Tyrese Maxey is still an outstanding player.

That hasn't changed. What has changed is Philadelphia's offense.

Jaylen Brown is now in town, and stars need the basketball.

That doesn't mean Maxey suddenly becomes a bad fantasy pick. It does mean I don't expect him to have quite the same offensive freedom he enjoyed before.

Yes, his efficiency could actually improve.

But could his shot attempts dip enough to affect his fantasy ceiling? I think that's a real possibility.

Basically, I'm probably taking him a round later than I would have before the trade.

Jrue Holiday

The Fit Doesn't Make Much Sense

This isn't really about ability. Jrue Holiday can still help winning basketball.

I'm just struggling to figure out exactly where his fantasy production comes from.

Portland suddenly has Ja Morant. Damian Lillard is back. Scoot Henderson still needs minutes. That's a lot of guards competing for one basketball.

Holiday will defend. He'll make smart plays. Those things help real NBA teams. They don't always help fantasy managers.

Trae Young

I'm Watching Before I'm Buying

This one may surprise some people.

Trae Young is still one of the league's best playmakers. His assists aren't going anywhere.

What gives me pause is everything around him.

Washington is still trying to establish an identity after adding Anthony Davis, and we really don't know what this offense will look like over a full season.

Again, I do believe Young will rack up the assists. The question is whether he'll score enough to justify a premium fantasy pick.

He's someone I'd much rather draft after he slips than reach for because of his name.

The Biggest Lesson

If these players have one thing in common, it's this: I'm paying for certainty early in my draft.

I'll take chances later.

Early picks should make your team feel safer, not force you to cross your fingers. That's why these names make me nervous.

Not because I think they're bad. But because I think there are too many unanswered questions.

Be Careful In The First Few Rounds

Fantasy championships usually aren't won in the first round.

But they can be lost there. The same goes for the next few rounds.

Domantas Sabonis and Jalen Duren are dealing with uncertain futures. Tyrese Maxey is adjusting to a new offensive hierarchy. Jrue Holiday finds himself in a crowded backcourt. Trae Young enters a situation that's still taking shape.

Maybe every one of them exceeds expectations. After all, it happens every season.

I'd simply rather let someone else take that chance while I build my roster around players whose roles feel a little more predictable.

That's usually a strategy that pays off over six months.

Questions About Possible Busts, Answered

Will Domantas Sabonis and Jalen Duren be traded for each other in 2026?

The outcome remains uncertain. Reported sign-and-trade talks between Sacramento and Detroit could significantly change both players' fantasy outlooks if completed, while a deal falling through would likely leave their values close to where they currently stand. That uncertainty alone makes both players riskier early-round selections.

Why is Tyrese Maxey a fantasy basketball bust risk in 2026-27?

Maxey's concern is tied to Philadelphia's changing offensive hierarchy. With Jaylen Brown joining the team, there may be fewer shot opportunities and less offensive freedom than before. While improved efficiency is possible, a reduction in volume could lower his fantasy ceiling enough to justify drafting him later.

Is Jrue Holiday still a safe fantasy basketball pick in Portland?

Holiday's fantasy outlook is clouded by role uncertainty. Portland's crowded backcourt includes Ja Morant, Damian Lillard, and Scoot Henderson, making it difficult to project consistent production. His defense and decision-making remain valuable to an NBA team, but those strengths do not always translate into reliable fantasy value.

Does Trae Young's extension with Washington guarantee fantasy value in 2026-27?

No. Young should continue producing assists at an elite level, but questions remain about Washington's offensive identity after adding Anthony Davis. Whether Young scores enough to justify an early fantasy selection depends on how the offense develops over the course of the season.

This story was originally published July 14, 2026 at 5:49 AM.