Will the Mariners make the playoffs this year? Here’s what the national media thinks about Seattle
There’s a buzz around the Seattle Mariners this season, after the team won the 90 games last season and nearly snuck into the postseason. With a promising group of young players like Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, expectations are sky high this spring. Can the Mariners overtake Houston and win the AL West? Here’s what the national media is predicting for this year’s team.
ESPN
ESPN picked Houston to win the division again in a near-unanimous vote, but writer Jesse Rogers was the lone vote for Seattle to win the AL West. His reasoning starts with a key offseason addition to the rotation.
“Did you see Seattle’s offseason? The Mariners are loaded and can actually still play the underdog card even though they became a known quantity last year. The addition of Robbie Ray might be the single most important addition for any team. He fills such a big void at the top of the rotation, while Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez bring the kind of veteran bats any team needs when it wants to make a leap in the standings. While they were adding, the Astros lost their star shortstop and pitching coach. Don’t underestimate the latter change as Brent Strom was instrumental in helping along Houston’s young pitchers. It’ll be a tight race, but Seattle will prevail. -- Jesse Rogers”
Bobby Witt Jr. led ESPN’s voting predictions for AL Rookie of the Year with 18 votes, while Julio Rodriguez received a pair of votes.
CBS
The five-voter panel at cbssports.com unanimously picked Houston to win the division. R.J. Anderson and Mike Axisa picked the Mariners to finish second in the AL West, while Katherine Acquavella, Dayn Perry and Matt Snyder picked the Angels to finish second and the Mariners third.
In CBS’ preseason top 100 players list, left fielder Jesse Winker — who the Mariners acquired from Cincinnati in March — comes in at No. 81.
“The Mariners are one of the teams benefitting from the Reds’ decision to tank in 2022. In their case, they get the 28-year-old Winker and his career slash line of .288/.385/.504.”
Pitcher Robbie Ray, Seattle’s prized free agent offseason acquisition, checks in at No. 28.
The 2021 AL Cy Young winner has become fastball-slider dominant, and it’s resulted in career-best outputs. That Ray struck out 32.1 percent of opposing hitters last season augurs very well for the future.
In CBS’ “22 bold predictions for 2022 MLB season,” Mike Axisa predicts outfielder Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez will win the AL Rookie of the Year.
“Witt Jr. may sock 30 homers, but Rodríguez will take home the league Rookie of the Year award. The Mariners’ charismatic outfield prospect has been a one-man highlight reel this spring. He’s launched titanic dingers, legged out an inside-the-park homer, made a leaping catch, and bat flipped a walk after falling behind in the count 0-2. Rodríguez, who is on Seattle’s Opening Day roster, is an absolute joy. The bold prediction here is Rodríguez, who ZiPS already projects as Seattle’s best player, will have a comparable season to Witt and edge him out in the closest Rookie of the Year vote since Carlos Correa finished 15 points ahead of Francisco Lindor in 2015 (124 to 109). I hope Witt and Rodríguez give us a Rookie of the Year race (and go on to have careers) like those two.”
THE RINGER
Michael Baumann predicts the Mariners will sneak into the postseason as the third wild card team, the only writer on the panel that has Seattle making the playoffs. Zach Kram believes Julio Rodriguez will win the AL Rookie of the Year.
“I was tempted to take Twins starter Joe Ryan as a sleeper pick, but it’s hard to pick against a member of the Witt-Torkelson-Rodríguez top prospect trio. Give me the best pure hitter of the bunch, as Rodríguez slashed .347/.441/.560 across High-A and Double-A last season, then so impressively crushed spring training pitching (.424/.487/.818) that he forced his way onto the Mariners’ Opening Day roster.”
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Fivethirtyeight.com isn’t too bullish on Seattle. The site lists the Mariners as the 17th best team in Major League Baseball, predicting an 80-82 record, a minus-five season-long run differential and giving the M’s a 32 percent chance to make the playoffs, a 14 percent chance to win the division and a one percent chance — so you’re saying there’s a chance — to win the World Series.
BLEACHER REPORT
BR’s Brandon Scott thinks the common sentiment that the Mariners overachieved last year and are due for regression may be overstated, though he still thinks Seattle will win four fewer games than last season, predicting an 86-76 record.
“The betting community sees regression from the Mariners, but this is a team to keep an eye on this season. As you’re likely aware, Seattle has the longest standing postseason drought in baseball (20 seasons), and last year stayed competitive for a wild-card berth up until the very end of the season. Put reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and All-Stars Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker on a team like this and it stands to reason they would be competitive again in this division.”
BETTING ODDS
Want to plunk down some cash on the Mariners to win the division, or even the World Series? We have some good news and bad news. The good: You’ll make a nice little profit if the Mariners can pull it off. The bad: The odds aren’t great.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of April 1.
The Mariners are listed at +460 to win the division, 18-1 to win the American League and 35-1 to win the World Series.
In simple terms, that would mean:
- A $10 bet on the Mariners to win the AL West would pay $46
- A $10 bet on the Mariners to win the American League would pay $180
- A $10 bet on the Mariners to win the World Series would pay $350
The Dodgers sit as the favorites at 5-1 to win the World Series, followed by the Astros and Blue Jays at 10-1.
