Seahawks’ keys to big NFC West test against the unbeaten Rams, plus the pick
The Seahawks’ quest to keep the NFC West could get a boost by the weather: forecasters are calling for a 60-percent chance of rain at CenturyLink Field at the 1:25 p.m. kickoff, with the rain probability decreasing as the game goes on.
That would seem to favor Seattle and be against the Rams’ top-ranked offense that is averaging 35 points per game and often uses the pass to set up Todd Gurley’s running.
Then again, with officials swapping out wet for dry footballs every play and the synthetic turf, the rain doesn’t always slow down a soaring offense.
Bigger keys to the Seahawks’ chances for an upset: Bobby Wagner chasing down Gurley, Seattle blocking the Rams’ daunting defensive line and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s best game yet this season.
SEAHAWKS GAMEDAY
LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-0) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m., CenturyLink Field
Line: Rams by 7 1/2.
TV: Channel 13 Radio: 710-AM,97.3-FM
Theseries: Seahawks lead the regular-season series 23-16, but the Rams have won four of the last six meetings, and two of the last three in Seattle. Los Angeles smoked the Seahawks 42-7 at CenturyLink Field in December, leading 34-0 at the half to signal a changing of the guard atop the NFC West. That was the largest margin of defeat for Seattle in the Pete Carroll coaching era that began in 2010, and largest in this series since the first game of it, Los Angeles’ 45-6 win at the Coliseum on Oct. 31, 1976, the Seahawks’ expansion season.
SEATTLE’S KEYS TO VICTORY
Best on best: The Seahawks were essentially without All-Pro middle linebacker Bobby Wagner the last time they played the Rams. He played limited by a hamstring injury in December, and Todd Gurley ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns in the first half. Wagner is back and healthier (his groin issue that kept him out a couple weeks ago is less than perfect). That makes the Seahawks far better equipped to, as Wagner said, meet Gurley everywhere he goes, sideline to sideline. If Wagner accomplished his goal, Seattle’s defense has a better chance than most do against the Rams.
Keep up the run—even when the yards aren’t there: The Seahawks have in the last two games gotten what they hadn’t had in two years: Have a 100-yard rusher. Chris Carson is back after a hip injury he got while running 32 times for 102 yards in the win over Dallas. Mike Davis earned some playing time by filling in last week at Arizona with 21 carries for 101 yards. The Seahawks need to run again at the Rams, to keep L.A.’s offense that is averaging 35 points per game off the field. They also need to keep the Rams’ pass rush from teeing off on Russell Wilson like it did in December (seven sacks). The big problem for Seattle: its linemen have to block the Rams’ brick-wall defensive front of Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and Michael Brockers. That’s unlikely to go as well as the blocking did against the Cowboys and Cardinals.
Help out those in need: Free safety Tedric Thompson is making his first career start, replacing out-for-the-year Earl Thomas. Austin Calitro is starting at weakside linebacker, a position he’s played for only a month, in place of still-out K.J. Wright. Expect the Rams to attack them with screens, crossing routes, inside and outside runs. Strong safety Bradley McDougald, brilliant this season, needs to help Thompson and likely shade his way in the back. Wagner needs to direct and help Calitro, on top of all else he must do.
The pick: Rams, 31-24. Not being able to move Donald, Suh and Brockers enough to run effectively becomes decisive, and the Rams swarm Wilson while scoring their normal 30 points with Gurley and Goff.
PRIME NUMBERS
SEATTLE
No. Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Year
54 Bobby Wagner LB 6-0 245 seventh
Him running with and running down Gurley is the Seahawks’ biggest key to pulling the upset..
15 Brandon Marshall WR 6-5 232 13th
The 34-year-old, six-time Pro Bowl pass catcher is on the spot for four drops in two games. David Moore will take some of his snaps Sunday, but in the red zone no Ram can match up with Marshall.
33 Tedric Thompson FS 6-0 204 second
First career start. The Seahawks are likely to immediately feel the effect of not having Earl Thomas.
LOS ANGELES
No. Name Pos. Ht. Wt. Year
30 Todd Gurley RB 6-1 224 fourth
Second in the NFL in rushing. First in need for Seattle to slow down, both in the run and pass games.
99 Aaron Donald DT 6-1 280 fifth
Most sacks (seven) and most tackles (23) against Seattle in eight career games than he has against any other NFL team. Usually just too fast and strong for interior blockers.
90 Michael Brockers DL 6-5 305 seventh
Less heralded than Donald and Ndamukong Sug next to him on the D-line. But Brockers is a versatile, dangerous pass rusher from both end outside and tackle inside who has wrecked the Seahawks before.
gregg.bell@thenewstribune.com; @gbellseattle