Analysis of Seahawks schedule: Favorable for Russell Wilson, but pass rush will be pivotal
There’s so much to get through from here to there—Jadeveon Clowney re-signing or leaving, Chris Carson returning from injury, and, oh yes, a pandemic—but the 2020 NFL schedule is favorable to the Seahawks.
Seattle has only one set of back-to-back road games: Nov. 8 at Buffalo and Nov. 15 at the Los Angeles Rams. The team the Seahawks are trying to catch, the defending conference- and division-champion San Francisco, has four such double roadies. One of those for the 49ers is week seven at New England and week eight against the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field.
Three of the Seahawks’ first five games are at home. Or will be, if the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t postpone or cancel any of the coming season. Three of Seattle’s final five games are also at home. The last game is the regular-season finale, week 17 at San Francisco.
The Niners have a particularly gnarly-looking stretch through the middle of the season: at the Patriots, at the Seahawks, four days later a NFC title-game rematch against Green Bay, at New Orleans, a bye, then at the Rams and home to Buffalo, an AFC playoff team last season.
During that same stretch Oct. 25 through Dec. 6, the Seahawks are at Arizona, hosting San Francisco, at the Bills, at the Rams, home on a four-day turnaround on a Thursday night against Arizona, at Philadelphia 11 days later, then home against the New York Giants.
That stretch is likely to determine who leads the NFC West heading into the final couple weeks of the season.
Here’s how I see each of Seattle’s 16 games, and a bye in week six that is earlier than any team would prefer—again, assuming we come out of the COVID-19 virus enough to play these games as scheduled.
Sunday, Sept. 13 at Atlanta, 10 a.m. FOX/channel 13
“I’ve always liked playing against my friends...,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told NFL Network Thursday about this opener. “I like beating my friends, too, to tell you the truth.”
Carroll beat Seahawks former defensive-line coach and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in Atlanta last October. That was when the Falcons were without injured former NFL MVP Matt Ryan. Seattle got 38-year-old Matt Schaub making his first start in four years instead. The Seahawks ran out to a 24-0 lead by halftime, then held on late for a 27-20 win over a fallen Falcons team.
This one is going to be much more difficult. Ryan presumably will be starting. Former Rams franchise back Todd Gurley will be debuting for Atlanta. Gurley is usually a big problem for Seattle’s defense. And Ryan? Including two playoff wins at home, he is 5-2 in his career against Seattle, with 16 touchdowns against just four interceptions against the Seahawks.
Seahawks 24, Falcons 23
Sunday, Sept. 20 NEW ENGLAND, 5:20 p.m. NBC/channel 5
It’s not Russell Wilson versus Tom Brady. For the first time in 20 years, Brady doesn’t play for the Patriots. He’s now a Buccaneer. Will it be Jarrett Stidham at quarterback for New England in the Seahawks’ showcased, Sunday-night home opener? Or the other QB currently on New England’s roster, former Browns starter Brian Hoyer?
Or...Cam Newton?
It’s still Bill Belichick. But without Brady, these aren’t the same Patriots.
Seahawks 28, Patriots 17
Sunday, Sept. 27 DALLAS, 1:25 p.m. FOX
Dak Prescott—angry the Cowboys franchise-tagged him this year instead of giving him a rich, multiyear deal—has lost two of his three career starts against the Seattle. The win was in the wild-card playoff round two seasons ago.
This will be the third game for Dallas’ new coach, former Packers leader and long-time Seahawks foe Mike McCarthy. McCarthy replaced Jason Garrett after the Cowboys lost to the middling Eagles in the next-to-last game of last season and choked away not just a home playoff game but making the postseason at all.
Seahawks 20, Cowboys 17
Sunday, Oct. 4 at Miami, 10 a.m., FOX
Seattle to Miami, the NFL’s longest in-continent trip: 2,731 air miles.
Indications were this game was going to be out of the continent, in London. Then he league canceled all five international games for 2020 because of the pandemic.
The intrigue here will be whether the Dolphins start rookie Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback after drafting him fifth overall last month. He is coming off a season-ending injury last fall at Alabama, and may not be ready for this one.
Miami missed the playoffs again in 2019. But they finished 5-4 after starting last season 0-7. This won’t be a walk on South Beach for Seattle.
Dolphins 23, Seahawks 21
Sunday, Oct. 11 MINNESOTA, 5:20 p.m. NBC
The Seahawks could if not should be 4-0 entering this one. The Vikings could be 0-4. They begin against the Packers, Philip Rivers and the Colts, the 2019 AFC-finalist Titans and the Texans.
This is the third consecutive season the NFL has sent Minnesota to CenturyLink Field for a primetime game.
The Seahawks are 19-3 at home in night games under Carroll. They are 27-7-1 in prime time on Thursday, Sunday or Monday since Carroll began coaching Seattle in 2010. That’s the league’s best such record in that span.
Seahawks 27, Vikings 20
Oct. 18 BYE (week 6)
This means unless the Seahawks secure the number-one seed in the NFC playoffs with the conference’s best record, they would play 15 consecutive games without a week off to win the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history. That’s the final 11 regular-season games, three playoff games under the league’s new, expanded postseason formation, and the Super Bowl.
This is the fourth time in seven years the Seahawks’ bye is scheduled within the first six weeks of the season. In 2017 they started 3-2 before the bye week and finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs for the only time in the last eight seasons. In 2016 they were 3-1 at their bye week, finished 10-5-1 and lost in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs at Atlanta. In 2014 the Seahawks were 2-1 at a very early bye. They finished 12-4 and back in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season.
Sunday, Oct. 25 at Arizona, 1:05 p.m. FOX
Quarterback Kyler Murray and coach Kliff Kingsbury are both going to be so much better in this one than they were last year in their rookie NFL seasons. The Cardinals are so much better, particularly after trading mothballed running back David Johnson to Houston for All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
Something extraordinary often happens when the Seahawks play in the desert: Wilson throwing an interception from the 1-yard line you may have heard about, at the end of Super Bowl 49; Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor ending their Seahawks careers with major injuries in the same 2017 game against the Cardinals; Earl Thomas breaking his leg again, then flipping off Carroll on his way out of the stadium and Seattle in 2018.
Something extraordinary for the Seahawks early in this 2020 season may happen here. They may lose. The pass rush the Seahawks have been desperately trying to improve this offseason needs to show up in games like this.
Is Jadeveon Clowney re-signed yet?
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 28
Sunday, Nov. 1 SAN FRANCISCO, 1:25 p.m. FOX
Here we go.
The Seahawks have been the NFL’s best team in November, December and early January in the regular season since Wilson’s rookie season of 2012. They are 50-19 in those months (New England is 47-18).
The Niners have re-loaded on their dominant defensive front. They traded DeForest Buckner to Indianapolis then drafted dynamic Javon Kinlaw in the first round to replace him at tackle. These Seahawks-49ers games look like they are going to be epic again this year.
How’s that Seattle pass rush coming along?
49ers 20, Seahawks 16
Sunday, Nov. 8 at Buffalo, 10 a.m. FOX
Russell Wilson crosses off the last NFL stadium in which he’s yet to play, and the Seahawks play in the really cool stadium amid houses and rolling fields in rural Orchard Park for the first time since 2008.
The Bills made it to the AFC playoffs last year after years of mediocrity. They have a nasty defense.
This one—perhaps in wind, or sleet, or snow, or all three off Lake Erie—is going to test Russell Wilson’s 31-7 record following an in-season loss. It’s the best such mark in the NFL since the 1970 merger.
Bills 17, Seahawks 13
Sunday, Nov. 15 at Los Angeles Rams, 1:25 p.m. FOX
Another game the pass rush will determine. Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defensive front is always an issue, for any foe. Last season, the Seahawks barely got close enough to Jared Goff to see his face during a Sunday night game in the Coliseum, and the Rams boat-raced Seattle.
With Gurley gone, Goff becomes the focal point for the Rams. And pressuring him to throw off time is a must for the Seahawks.
Yes, the first three-game losing streak for Seattle since the middle of the 2011 season, when Wilson was quarterbacking the University of Wisconsin.
Did Clowney re-sign yet?
Rams 34, Seahawks 28
Thursday, Nov. 19 ARIZONA, 5:20 FOX/NFL Network/Amazon
The Cardinals have won three of their last four games at CenturyLink Field. That includes Murray getting hurt during Arizona’s visit to Seattle in December, yet the Cardinals still dominating the Seahawks in a 27-13 win that sent Seattle on the road for the playoffs, and eventually out of them.
But even with that recent history, even coming off the road and playing on three days rest, the Seahawks aren’t losing four in a row.
Seahawks 31, Cardinals 16
Monday, Nov. 30 at Philadelphia, 5:20 ESPN
The flip side of the Thursday night games players hate: the mini-bye they love. And the Seahawks get an extra day here, 11 days between the Cardinals home game and a Monday nighter at Philadelphia.
Wilson, Carson, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright—they will appreciate the rest for this one. But: assuming Carson Wentz doesn’t get knocked out again, this game will be more dangerous for Seattle than its wild-card playoff win was in Philadelphia in January.
This is the third Seahawks game in Philadelphia in 12 months.
Eagles 16, Seahawks 13
Sunday, Dec. 6 NEW YORK GIANTS, 1:05 p.m. FOX
Another game for the Seahawks’ pass rush to be a factor, against young Giants quarterback Daniel Jones. This could be the game Seattle’s defensive pressure shows up and is decisive.
Seahawks 27, Giants 7
Sunday, Dec. 13 NEW YORK JETS, 1:05 p.m. CBS
Here comes Seattle’s annual riving rush to the finish line into the playoffs. Back-to-back home games; this is the part of the schedule the Seahawks should roll through.
Seahawks 35, Jets 14
Sunday, Dec. 20 at Washington, 10 a.m., FOX
Ron Rivera becoming the new coach instantly makes Washington better. But not good enough to beat a playoff team that by this point will be where it wants to be for the postseason.
Seahawks 28, Washington 10
Sunday, Dec. 27 LOS ANGELES RAMS, 1:05 p.m. CBS
Barring a season-changing injury to a starting quarterback, the division title is likely to come down to these last two games. While San Francisco is playing at Arizona on this weekend, the Seahawks will get after Goff far more effectively in the rain, cold and roars of CenturyLink Field than they did in L.A.
Seahawks 23, Rams 14
Sunday, Jan. 3 at San Francisco, 1:25 p.m. FOX
As the schedule-makers may have been planning for, the NFL’s toughest division again comes down to this regular-season finale. Expect this game to be flexed again into prime time. Wilson beats Jimmy Garoppolo this time, and again in Santa Clara.
Seahawks 20, 49ers 17
That’s an 11-5 regular season.
The pass rush is such a huge issue for the 2020 Seahawks, it will determine whether the Seahawks play home playoff games. That, in turn, will determine whether Seattle reaches the Super Bowl for the fourth time in franchise history.
Once again, the three previous times the Seahawks played in the Super Bowl (at the end of the 2005, ‘13 and ‘14 seasons) they earned home-field advantage throughout the NFC postseason.
Has Clowney re-signed yet?
This story was originally published May 8, 2020 at 4:04 PM.
