Why Seahawks believe they are triply more prepared to beat the Rams this time
The Seahawks believe they are triply more prepared to beat the Rams this time than last.
Leading rusher Chris Carson, number-two plowing back Carlos Hyde and 2018 first-round pick Rashaad Penny are all healthy for Seattle’s chance to win the NFC West Sunday at Lumen Field.
None of them played last month when the Rams beat the Seahawks 23-16 in Inglewood. Penny hadn’t played for 12 months until his return from reconstructive knee surgery last week in Seattle’s win at Washington.
Seattle’s running backs against the Rams that November day in new SoFi Stadium? Practice-squad call-up Alex Collins, playing his second NFL game in two years, and rookie DeeJay Dallas. Collins and Dallas carried just 13 times against All-World defensive tackle and the Rams’ swarming front. Russell Wilson dropped back to pass 50 times: 37 passes, seven scrambles—and six sacks.
Wilson committed three turnovers. That pass-run imbalance, the Rams justifiably ignoring the run and Wilson’s mistakes were why Seattle’s highest-scoring offense in the league at the time scored just 16 points, half what it was averaging. L.A. beat Seattle for the fifth time in six meetings.
Having Carson, Hyde and Penny—plus Ethan Pocic, who missed that first Rams game with a concussion while Kyle Fuller made his first NFL start at center—is the biggest difference in the Seahawks’ favor Sunday.
Here are the rest of the keys to this showdown in Seattle. A Seahawks win clinches the fifth division title in coach Pete Carroll’s 11 seasons leading the franchise. That’s one fewer than Seattle had in franchise history before Carroll arrived in 2010.
A Rams win plus Los Angeles winning at home next week over Arizona gives the Rams the NFC West and a home game to begin the playoffs in two weeks.
1. It’s the Rams. So--again--the most important player Seattle must slow is Donald.
The All-Pro defensive tackle has 12 sacks in 13 career games against Wilson. No team has sacked Wilson more times than the Rams in his career: 67 times in his 17 games against the Rams. Ten of those are losses. This season Donald has 12 ½ sacks, a half sack behind Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt for most in the NFL. He just got selected to the Pro Bowl for the seventh time.
Despite trailing for all but 3 ½ minutes in the game, the Seahawks kept Donald from getting a sack or even a tackle in the teams’ first meeting last month in California. If they do that again Sunday, they likely will win the West.
2. Wilson completed 17 of 24 throws for just 121 yards last week at Washington. His 4.4 yards per attempt was his lowest in more than five years. That was the Seahawks’ way to combat Washington’s strong pass rush.
And it worked. The Seahawks took a 20-3 lead then won by five points to clinch a playoff spot.
But DK Metcalf did not get a target until deep into the second quarter and largely was not a factor. Wilson was waiting on Metcalf to turn his head around running his patterns, while the QB was making quicker decisions in Washington.
Sunday, Metcalf needs to be on Wilson’s quicker pace, with his head turned ready for quick throws, because the Rams’ pass rush is better than Washington’s.
3. The winless Jets, 17-point underdogs, upset the Rams last weekend by pressuring Jared Goff, specifically with their front four defensive linemen. New York sacked Goff three times and hit him eight other times while he threw an interception.
The Rams’ quarterback has turned the ball over 16 times in 13 games. He’s been better against the blitz lately, throwing the ball quickly to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on crossing patterns. Kupp and Woods each have more than 82 catches this season.
Defensive ends Carlos Dunlap, L.J. Collier and Alton Robinson sealed the Seahawks’ win last weekend with sacks on Washington’s final drive. If they can do what the Jets did to Goff and continue that pressure against the Rams, Seattle can cover with seven defenders--instead of with six and five and four they did while having to blitz Jamal Adams, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright a lot in the first Rams game.
Those coverage numbers would put this game more in Seattle’s favor.
Prediction: Carson leads a run game Seattle absolutely needs to make the Seahawks play more honestly against Wilson. The surging defense gets a huge turnover from Goff. And the Seahawks win the division for the first time since 2016 to get a home playoff game. Seahawks 24, Rams 20.
This story was originally published December 27, 2020 at 11:12 AM.
