Seahawks without Russell Wilson: NFL history says teams that lose QBs lose 2/3rds of games
There are already the well-known intangibles the Seahawks will be missing for the first time with Russell Wilson injured and out indefinitely.
His leadership. His relentless optimism. His famously neutral mind.
Yet the tangibles Seattle (2-3) is now up against with Wilson ending his streak of 165 consecutive starts to begin his NFL career?
Those won’t be exactly in the Seahawks’ favor, either, when Geno Smith starts for him in Pittsburgh on Sunday night.
Coach Pete Carroll refused to share his team’s ballpark estimates Monday on when Wilson might return from surgery to repair a torn tendon and dislocation of a middle finger on his throwing hand. It’s believed to be at least a four-to-six-week recovery.
The best case for Seattle might be for Wilson to go on injured reserve and miss the next three games — at Pittsburgh this weekend, then home against New Orleans and Jacksonville — then maybe return following Seattle’s bye Nov. 7. Maybe. The team plays at Green Bay Nov. 14.
Asked about Wilson going on injured reserve and missing a minimum of three weeks per league IR rules, Carroll said Monday: “That’s an option.”
Nineteen times over the last six years NFL teams have lost their starting quarterbacks to a major injury during the season that sidelined them for at least three games.
Only two times in those 19 instances did their teams go on to make the playoffs that season. The combined records of those teams: 59-117. That’s a winning percentage of just .335.
So recent league history says if you lose your starting quarterback for a while, you are going to lose two-thirds of your games.
That’s why it is the most important position in the sport — and how the Seahawks dodged fate and misfortune for all of Wilson’s first 10 years in the league. Until Thursday night.
The exceptions: the 2017 Minnesota Vikings went 11-3 after Sam Bradford went out injured in week two. Case Keenum led those Vikings to a division title and playoff win over New Orleans, on a final play touchdown pass by Keenum known as the “Minneapolis Miracle.” Minnesota lost that season’s NFC title game to Philadelphia.
Those 2017 Eagles were flying when they lost franchise quarterback Carson Wentz to a season-ending knee injury with three games left in the regular season. They kept flying. Nick Foles replaced Wentz and became the Super Bowl 52 Most Valuable Player. Foles and the Eagles beat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots for that season’s NFL title.
That’s it. Those are the only two times, out of the last 19, a team has lost its starting quarterback to a major injury during a season and still made the playoffs.
That’s the challenge Geno Smith and these Seahawks have beginning Sunday night at the Steelers (2-3).
“I’ll be ready,” Smith said.
The list
Year Player, Team....................................Record after QB injured................Playoffs?
2020 Dak Prescott, DAL...........................................4-7.........................................................No
2019 Alex Smith, WSH.................................................1-5..........................................................No
2019 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT..............................8-7..........................................................No
2019 Cam Newton, CAR...........................................5-9..........................................................No
2019 Joe Flacco, DEN....................................................5-3..........................................................No
2018 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF....................................3-10.......................................................No
2017 Aaron Rodgers, GB............................................3-6.........................................................No
2017 Carson Wentz, PHI.............................................2-1.........................................................YES
2017 Andrew Luck, IND...............................................4-12......................................................No
2017 Deshaun Watson, HOU..................................1-8........................................................No
2017 Carson Palmer, AZ..............................................3-4.........................................................No
2017 Sam Bradford, MIN............................................11-3.....................................................YES
2017 Josh McCown, NYJ.............................................0-3.....................................................No
2016 Robert Griffin III, CLE........................................0-11....................................................No
2016 Jay Cutler, CHI...........................................................1-5.....................................................No
2015 Joe Flacco, BAL.......................................................2-5.....................................................No
2015 Tony Romo, DAL....................................................1-11.....................................................No
2015 Andrew Luck, IND................................................4-3.....................................................No
2015 Josh McCown, CLE..............................................1-4.....................................................No
TOTAL.........................................................................................59-117.......Missed playoffs 17 of 19 times
A mothballed plan
They didn’t want to ever need it, but this is why Carroll and general manager John Schneider got a veteran, former starting NFL quarterback to be Wilson’s backup.
Just in case.
Carroll and Schneider saw the value of this mothball-QB plan in 2016.
In the first month of that season, Wilson missed the first snaps of his career because of injuries. Miami’s Ndamukong Suh twisted Wilson and sprained his ankle in Seattle’s opener for 2016. A couple weeks later, Wilson sprained the medial collateral ligament in his knee against San Francisco. He never missed a game or a practice.
But undrafted rookie Trevone Boykin — remember him? — had to come in for meaningful snaps beyond mop-up duty in garbage time. The Seahawks’ offense looked like Boykin: completely spooked.
Carroll and Schneider got spooked, too. Never again would they risk an unproven project as the only option behind Wilson.
After that season they traded a sixth-round pick to Green Bay to get former Packers fill-in starter Brett Hundley for one season.
The following offseason they signed Smith, because he was the former New York Jets second-round pick and starter for 31 games (12-19 career record) with the Jets and Giants.
“That’s the way we should be thinking,” Carroll said. “I want a guy who’s been there and done that and had the experience.”
But Wilson played 98% of snaps and all the games and practices again in 2018, ‘19 and ‘20. Smith kept thinking he was starter quality in the league. Yet he kept re-signing with Seattle.
“I played behind three of the most durable quarterbacks in NFL history with Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Russell Wilson. So it’s been a long time coming,” Smith said. “But no way am I satisfied with just going out there and playing. It’s about getting wins, and it’s about leading the team to victories.
“I like to think that I’ll be able to do that.”
Carroll talked each of the last couple offseasons with Smith about staying with a job no one in Seattle wanted or expected to mean anything.
Now it does. Smith very much does.
“We did do that. When it came time to where he had to make a decision, we did talk about it, all of the stuff you would understand,” Carroll said. “He’s playing behind a really durable guy who’s an all-time QB. Hard-nosed, tough dude to hurt. (Wilson) has been amazingly durable. He knew all that.
“But he loved being here and loved the system. He knew how much we respected him and how we cared for him. I talked to him over the weekend. We’re shooting the breeze on stuff. We’ve been in good communication forever. It just made sense to him.
“That’s what we really appreciate, that he did that.”
As Carroll said: “Now he gets a chance, and we need him now to come through and play great football.
“He knows that, and this is what he has been preparing for.”
This story was originally published October 12, 2021 at 7:12 AM.
