NFL 1st-round mock draft: Early surprise, standout drops--and Seahawks same ol’
One seemingly sure thing at the top.
Then...who knows?
What most around the league view as a weaker 2026 NFL draft begins Thursday at 5 p.m. in Pittsburgh. The Las Vegas Raiders have the first pick, thanks to going 3-14 last year in Pete Carroll’s and Geno Smith’s only seasons in Vegas.
The New York Giants will be busy early in this draft. They have two picks in the top 10, following their trade last weekend of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Seahawks? The Super Bowl champions have the 32nd and final choice in round one. Seattle has four picks total over the seven rounds. That’s the fewest in the league this year. It’s second-fewest in franchise history. The Seahawks had three picks in the 2021 “COVID draft” they pretty much punted amid all the oddities of the pandemic.
This is The News Tribune’s annual NFL mock draft for the first round Thursday evening:
1. Raiders
Fernando Mendoza, quarterback, Indiana
That one seemingly sure thing: This draft’s most accurate, innate, poised prospect for the national college champions at the sport’s most important position. Las Vegas gets its reward for being so bad last season. A quarterback goes first overall again, for the fourth straight draft and eighth time in nine years.
2. Jets
Avril Reese, edge rusher, Ohio State
Coach Aaron Glenn wants to advance New York with a multiple defense, with players in multiple spots, like Mike Macdonald has with the NFL’s best unit in Seattle. Off the ball, on the ball, in pass coverage, stopping the run, rushing the QB--Reese did it all at an elite level for the Buckeyes. The Jets cancelled their pre-draft visit with Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey. Is that the ultimate smokescreen? Nah.
3. Giants (in projected trade up with Cardinals)
Jeremiyah Love, running back, Notre Dame
A surprise: A running back in the top three. In a weak year for the position in the draft.
New coach John Harbaugh wants to bring his run-first style of offense from Baltimore to keep prized 2025 rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart from getting battered more. Harbaugh trades two third-day choices to get the best running back in this weak class of them, by far, and jumps Tennessee wanting Love.
Arizona moves down two spots and gains a fourth-round (105th overall) plus a fifth-round (145th) pick to move down a couple spots — and still get their guy.
4. Titans
David Bailey, edge rusher, Texas Tech
New Titans head coach (and former Seahawks assistant) Robert Saleh needs waves of pass rushers for how he wants to play. In four years as the Jets head coach, his team selected a pass rusher in the first round twice. Saleh will gladly take what many scouts see as the best pass rusher in this draft.
5. Cardinals (in projected trade down with Giants)
Francis Mauigoa, right tackle, Miami
Arizona needs a young, long-term quarterback after releasing Kyler Murray last month. But they need a stud tackle to block edge rushers off Gardner Minshew or whoever is the Cardinals QB more. Arizona didn’t address right tackle in free agency, hinting they’ll take this draft’s best one with the team’s first pick here.
6. Buccaneers (in projected trade up with Browns)
Rueben Bain Jr., edge rusher, Miami
Cleveland is shopping its sixth pick almost as much as Seattle general manager John Schneider is shopping the Seahawks’ 32nd-overall selection. Tampa Bay jumps nine spots from 15 to get Bain, one of the elite edge rushers in this draft class.
The Browns get the Bucs’ first-round spot at 14, Tampa Bay’s second-round pick at 46th overall, plus its seventh-round choice (229)
7. Commanders
Sonny Styles, linebacker, Ohio State
Coach Dan Quinn REALLY needs to rebuild his defense that allowed 6 yards per snap during Washington’s fall in 2025. The Commanders let Bobby Wagner’s contract end. Though they haven’t closed the door to re-signing the still-free agent, the future Hall of Famer and Seahawks legend turns 36 in June. Styles is a plug-and-play replacement in the middle of the defense and as Washington’s new defensive play caller.
8. Saints
Carnell Tate, wide receiver, Ohio State
High time in New Orleans to get quarterback Tyler Shough a game-breaking receiver. The Saints are happy the best one on their board is still available here.
9. Chiefs
Makai Lemon, wide receiver, USC
Coach Andy Reid gets recovering-from-injury Patrick Mahomes another target, whom most rate with Tate as the top wide receivers in this class.
Kansas City takes wide receivers in the top rounds of drafts as not just a trend but a habit.
10. Giants (from Bengals)
Caleb Downs, safety, Ohio State
New York uses the pick it got trading Lawrence to Cincinnati to get what many believe is the best defensive player in this draft. Downs, who first starred at Alabama, is athletic. He’s smart. He’s a John Harbaugh player. This will be the fourth safety a John Harbaugh team has drafted in the first round in 19 years.
11. Dolphins
Spencer Fano, right tackle, Utah
New coach. New GM. New era in Miami. The Dolphins have seven picks in the first three rounds. They get a coveted, athletic brick wall who can play tackle, guard and has even worked out at center for NFL scouts.
12. Cowboys
Keldric Faulk, edge rusher, Auburn
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer, the former Seahawks offensive coordinator, needs to remake his porous Dallas defense in a big way. Many see the dynamic Faulk as a “boom-or-bust” prospect and something of a risk to draft here. The Cowboys see the athlete, at one of the sport’s most important positions, to help replace some of what they lost trading Micah Parsons last year.
13. Rams (from Falcons)
Jordyn Tyson, wide receiver, Arizona State
I could see the Rams trading back here, then getting a quarterback to eventually succeed 38-year-old Matthew Stafford. Coach Sean McVay sees wide receiver Davante Adams turning 34 during the 2026 season, the last one of his contract. Tyson’s caution: Injuries in each of his final three college seasons.
14. Ravens
Kenyon Sadiq, tight end, Oregon
The Ravens post-John Harbaugh re-stock tight end with Mark Andrews turning 31 in September. Sadiq is the consensus best at his position in this draft, a new target for quarterback Lamar Jackson.
15. Browns (in projected trade down with Buccaneers)
Monroe Freeling, left tackle, Georgia
Cleveland trades down knowing it can still get Freeling nine spots lower. The Browns used four left tackles last season. They get one they can count on for four (or more) years. Tacoma-based NFL draft guru Rob Rang of FoxSports.com says: “There isn’t a blocker in this class who looks the part of an NFL left tackle more than the loose and long 6-foot-7, 315-pound Freeling.”
16. Jets
Mansoor Delane, cornerback, LSU
Delane is the consensus top player in a deep cornerback draft class. Did I mention coach Aaron Glenn, a former NFL defensive back, wants to advance his New York defense with multiplicity and young talent?
17. Lions
Olaivavega Ioane, guard, Penn State
The best interior offensive linemen in this draft is also known to be, well, mean. That sounds like a Dan Campbell player fit for Detroit. The Lions had their O-line anchor Frank Ragnow retire last year after seven seasons at age 29 because of constant injuries.
18. Vikings
Dillon Thieneman, safety, Oregon
The Vikings aren’t sure if 37-year-old safety Harrison Smith will return for a 15th season; he’s a free agent. Thieneman fits what Brian Flores loves to do with his switching, blitzing, multiple defense in Minnesota. He’s fast.
19. Panthers
Kayden Proctor, left tackle, Alabama
He’s massive, at 365 pounds. And he’s athletic, long and a moving brick wall. Panthers general manager (and former Seahawks executive) Dan Morgan has the option to move Proctor to guard — and to be a Carolina bedrock.
20. Cowboys
Colton Hood, cornerback, Tennessee
Did we mention Dallas needs defense? Jermod McCoy would be the pick here, but there’s word he may need a second knee surgery. That has McCoy falling in some people’s minds down or out of the first round. The Cowboys and Schottenheimer will love Hood’s coverage plus toughness against the run.
21. Steelers
KC Concepcion, wide receiver, Texas A&M
He scored 28 receiving and rushing touchdowns in 38 college games at A&M and North Carolina State. The Steelers are still trying to get wide receiver right after trading away George Pickens, trading with the Seahawks to get DK Metcalf. Quarterback here? The Steelers think Aaron Rodgers is coming back. And they haven’t seen what they have in Will Howard, the QB they drafted last year from Ohio State. He missed almost all last season with a preseason injury.
22. Chargers
Blake Miller, offensive tackle, Clemson
Los Angeles and new coach Jim Harbaugh had an epidemic of injuries across the offensive line. It ruined the Chargers’ 2025 season. L.A. allowed 60 sacks, second-most in the NFL, and quarterback Justin Herbert got battered.
Miller started every game, 54 starts in a row, in four years for Clemson. Rang notes how quick and smart Miller is.
23. Eagles
Denzel Boston, wide receiver, Washington
They wanted Proctor. They also have all kinds of smoke that they are trading wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Patriots. Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman is college buddies with UW coach Jedd Fisch, from the University of Florida in the mid-1990s. Think they haven’t talked — and talked up — Boston more than most in the league view the Huskies’ dynamic wide out?
24. Browns (from Jaguars)
Akheem Mesidor, edge rusher, Miami
This isn’t a need pick. Not with reigning NFL defensive player of the year Myles Garrett in Cleveland.
This is a pick for the value of pass rushers in a pass-happy league. You can never have enough. Mesidor is one of the best in this class, though he is older (25).
25. Bears
Kayden McDonald, defensive tackle, Ohio State
Chicago with coach Ben Johnson fixing quarterback Caleb Williams seem ascending on offense. The Bears need to add to the defense for it to keep pace and get back to winning the NFC North again.
Chicago was 27th in the league in rushing defense last season. McDonald, 6 feet 3 and 326 pounds, is a run-stuffer supeme.
26. Bills
T.J. Parker, edge rusher, Clemson
Buffalo’s M.O. under general manager Brandon Beane has been big, powerful pass rushers. That’s what Parker is. He can also stay on the field in the Bills’ defense on run downs.
27. 49ers
Max Iheanachor, left tackle, Arizona State
The Niners just re-signed Trent Williams again. But he’s turning 38. He’s the left tackle of San Francisco’s present. The 6-5, 325-pound Iheanachor, a Nigerian basketball and soccer player, gets a year to develop into the 49ers’ left tackle of the future.
28. Texans
Vega Ioane, left guard, Penn State
Many draft analysts have Houston and San Francisco back to back each taking a tackle to pass block.
But the Texans are stunned what many see as the best pure guard is still here at 28. Ioane is plug and play.
29. Chiefs
Jermod McCoy, cornerback, Tennessee
Kansas City traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams with the idea of replenishing. The Chiefs use their second pick of round one on the riskiest top pick in the league.
It’s not a matter of skill. McCoy is elite for that. McCoy is going to need to convince a team’s medical staff his once-repaired knee can hold up to warrant picking him this high.
30. Dolphins
Cashius Howell, edge rusher, Texas A&M
The Dolphins need a lot, especially on defense. Howell was productive in college then had underwhelming testing and results at the combine. That’s why he’s here for Miami to take.
31. Patriots
Caleb Lomu, offensive tackle, Utah
The Seahawks exposed New England’s O-line with pressure and confusion in the Super Bowl. So the Patriots reload on the offensive line with yet another standout tackle, who can also play guard.
32. SEAHAWKS
A trade. Shocker.
Seattle trades this pick to Cleveland, for the 39th-overall choice seven spots into round two Friday. The Seahawks also get a fourth-round choice from the Browns they didn’t have, at 107 seven selections into that round on Saturday. That gives Seattle five total picks: two in round two, one to end the third round, one in the fourth round and one in the sixth round. Quarterback Ty Simpson of Alabama still being available here at 32 sure would help the Seahawks’ quest to trade back for the 11th time in Schneider’s 15 deals involving first-round picks (the other four included veteran players; Seattle’s GM has never traded up in round one).
General manager John Schneider on Monday openly advertised his want for this draft: Trade back from the last pick of the first round. He succeeds, dealing his first-round pick for the 15th time in 17 drafts, and again trading down.
