Matt Driscoll: Dismal voter turnout continues Pierce County trend

The dust has all but settled on 2015’s general election.

Tacoma voters approved a minimum wage hike, albeit not the hike to $15 some were hoping for.

Tacoma voters approved more money for Tacoma’s roads, although — if the numbers hold at a ridiculously tight four-vote margin — not nearly as much as city officials sought.

Pierce County voters shot down the general services building, a result that surprised almost no one.

And, city- and countywide, just over a third of registered voters cared about any of it.

Whatever your opinion is on the individual outcomes of the Nov. 3 election, that last bit would seem to be the saddest reality of all.

But it’s far from shocking.

This week I spoke with Pierce County Auditor Julie Anderson and two members of her staff, elections manager Mike Rooney and elections supervisor Shannon Cortez.

The takeaway: In this off-year election, Pierce County once again lived up to its reputation as a place that struggles to get registered voters engaged.

When it comes to turnout, Pierce County ranked 34th out of 39 counties.

“We’re in the lower tier of turnout and always have been,” Anderson told me, matter-of-factly.

Looking back at historical results from similar off-year elections, and trying to anticipate the intrigue of the specific issues facing voters this time around, Anderson’s office predicted a 42 percent countywide turnout.

We hit just under 34 percent.

Tacoma fared only slightly better, at just a hair over 35 percent.

“When we make predictions, right or wrong, I like to be a little bit of an optimist, because I’d rather encourage people to vote,” Rooney said.

“We obviously expected those issues to generate more turnout,” Anderson added.

“It bothers us.”

It should bother all of us. While presidential year elections routinely hit turnout numbers in the mid 70 and low 80 percent range, off-year elections like this one — even ones with important issues at play — typically fail to capture much interest.

In 2013, Pierce County notched a 41.2 percent voter turnout. In 2011, it was 49.5 percent. In 2009, 43 percent. And 2007, 44.6 percent.

None of those numbers is worth writing home over.

Interpreting turnout isn’t straightforward. There are always caveats and variables.

The percentage of registered voters who cast ballots in any given election is largely dependent on just how many people are registered to vote — a number the state has done a good job moving higher, and one that always surges in presidential years.

According to 2014 census estimates, there are just over 632,000 Pierce County residents of voting age, and according to the Auditor’s Office, just over 450,000 registered voters.

While 2007 saw a turnout of over 44 percent, that relatively decent tally resulted in just over 166,000 ballots cast. Meanwhile, 2015’s dismal 34 percent turnout equals 152,000 ballots, or only 14,000 fewer than eight years ago.

Still, turnout of just over 34 percent is sad. As Anderson points out, “We have to mail out 450,000 ballots, and if only 30 to 40 percent (of voters) are returning them, that’s a great waste of an opportunity, and resources as well.”

For those searching for reason for optimism, there were some positive takeaways from this year’s exercise in democracy.

“Despite — or perhaps because of — the dismally low turnout, voters appear to have paid much more attention to their ballots than we usually expect,” Nic Van Putten, a political consultant with Progressive Strategies NW, told me this week.

(Earlier this month Van Putten predicted a countywide turnout somewhere near 37 percent.)

As an example, Van Putten cited the low number of under-votes on Tacoma’s two-part minimum wage question. That’s the number of people who failed to answer whether they prefer $12 or $15 a hour, possibly because they had already voted “no” on the first question about whether to raise the minimum wage.

The low number of under-votes — only 3,228 out of 35,827 cast on the first part of the question — indicates “that (voters) either carefully read their ballots or listened to the information campaign coming from the $12 side,” he said.

“Either one of those is impressive.”

Van Putten also highlighted the county general services referendum, and its yes-means-no wording, along with the strong rejection of this year’s mangled strong-mayor initiative, despite the fact that he’s heard “most polling had the issue (in general) around 50-55 percent” support.

“Put all of these measures together, and you have a pretty clear story of an informed and intentional electorate,” Van Putten told me.

And, if you need another bit of good news, there’s this: 2016 is a presidential year, something the Auditor’s Office is already gearing up for. It expects turnout close to 80 percent.

“People are choosing what election they want to participate in,” Rooney says, finding a silver lining. “That’s a testament that people trust the election process. They know how to participate.”

Now if we could only convince more of them to do so on a regular basis.

This story was originally published November 14, 2015 at 6:15 AM with the headline "Matt Driscoll: Dismal voter turnout continues Pierce County trend."