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Jac Caglianone Fantasy 2026: No RBIs But Elite Exit Velocity – Bad Luck or Warning Sign?

By Tom McFeeley Athlon Sports

Updated April 16, 2026 11:06 AM

Jac Caglianone is the only "qualified" hitter to collect not a single RBI this season.

Not a HR, not an RBI, not a stolen base. Just 4 runs, not leaving fantasy baseball owners with much after 3 weeks.

But is Caglianone truly going through a slump or just running into a period of bad luck? Most of his metrics say he's performing well. Let's look under the hood and guess what's on the horizon for the Royals outfielder.

Surface Stats vs. Underlying Metrics in 2026

Jac Caglianone's EV50 ranking among MLB leaders reinforces underlying power skills despite early-season RBI drought. Peter Aiken-Imagn Images Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

I'm going to throw a lot of numbers at you, so hold tight.

First, Caglianone's EV50 number. EV50 is the average of a hitter's top 50 percent exit velocities. Caglianone's EV50 is third in MLB, at 107.3. He trails only two guys - Oneil Cruz and James Wood, who it's safe to say are off to hot starts. He has the sixth highest maximum EV, at 116.1, wedged between two guys named Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

His line drive percentage, so far, has soared to 38.2 percent, up from last season's 15.8 percent. His hard-hit percentage is up 10.5 percent, to 52.9 percent. His BABIP is .412.

Caglianone has only had 7 plate appearances with runners in scoring position and has collected just one hit, a single that obviously did not bring in a run, while striking out 4 times. The .143 average in only slightly below his .150 from a season ago, with 38 such situations (2 HR, 12 RBI). In fact he is only 2-for-15 with any runners on base this season, an obvious factor in the RBI drought.

The Role of Batted-Ball Luck and BABIP

Jac Caglianone's batted-ball profile and BABIP trends indicate poor sequencing luck driving early RBI struggles. © Jeff Curry-IRoyals President Sends Message as Jac Caglianone Decision Nearsmagn Images © Jeff Curry-IRoyals President Sends Message as Jac Caglianone Decision Nearsmagn Images

Why the RBI Drought Is Mostly Bad Luck

Caglianone's metrics are all pointing in the right direction, but his successes are almost exclusively coming with empty bases. Besides the .400+ BABIP his wOBA is a solid .345.

In his rookie season of just 232 plate appearances, he swatted 7 HR, contributed 18 RBI, 19 runs and a stolen base despite hitting just .157.

The low batting average from last season could explain him trying to make a good impression this season. Most projection systems tab him for 18-20 HR and a high average (.290+) with mid-50 RBI. The 23-year old was being drafted at 177 on average, or the 105th hitter overall. I was, and still am, very high on Caglianone and hope he doesn't get artificially aggressive trying to make things happen while attempting to collect his first HR or RBI.

Roster Advice for Fantasy Baseball Managers

Jac Caglianone's advanced metrics support buy-low fantasy strategy despite surface stats suppressing perceived value early. © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Hold, Buy Low, or Sell High?

In most formats I would hold on Caglianone. I worry a bit that he will start to collect results when he's not quite hitting the ball so well, further depressing his totals. But he has little MLB experience, he is young, and we all need to be patient as he learns and grows.

You're unlikely to get much more for him right now, even with owners who insist on his talent. But you can buy low on him-and you could still clear a healthy profit, but remember the 20 HR/50 RBI projections and don't assume any or much more than that.

Feel free to bench him until the stats get better, but, again it is not like he is not hitting the ball well at all. If you can afford another week of low RBI output, roll with Cags and hopefully he'll fulfill your expectations and then some moving forward.

Jac Caglianone 2026 Fantasy Questions, Answered

Why does Jac Caglianone have zero RBIs despite elite exit velocity in 2026?

His EV50 ranks 6th in MLB, but poor BABIP luck and low strand rate have suppressed RBI opportunities. Underlying metrics strongly support positive regression.

Is Jac Caglianone's RBI drought a real fantasy red flag in 2026?

No. The batted-ball profile and exit velocity numbers point to classic small-sample bad luck rather than a skill issue.

Should I roster or trade for Jac Caglianone in fantasy leagues right now?

Treat this as a buy-low window in all formats. The underlying metrics suggest a strong rebound is coming once balls start falling in.

How sustainable is Jac Caglianone's exit velocity in 2026?

Extremely sustainable. His EV50 and hard-hit rates are backed by consistent swing mechanics and Statcast data that rarely regress sharply.

What should fantasy managers monitor in Jac Caglianone's next games?

Watch for BABIP normalization, any improvement in RBI situations, and continued hard-contact consistency. A return to expected wOBA would confirm the drought is over.

This story was originally published April 16, 2026 at 10:43 AM.