Kentucky Derby 2026 predictions, post time, odds, betting picks
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday live from Churchill Downs Racetrack in Louisville.
The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports will begin at its tentatively listed 6:57 p.m. ET post time as we enjoy the first leg of the 2026 Triple Crown.
Given that the parimutuel betting involved in horse racing means payout amounts change, keep tabs on last-minute odds movement and sports news for the Derby to ensure you're getting the best price.
Scroll for the full list of horses running in this year's Kentucky Derby and the best ways to bet on the field.
2026 Kentucky Derby horses: rail order with odds to win race
Odds to win the Kentucky Derby listed next to each horse appear on KentuckyDerby.com's current morning lines as of Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
- Renegade (5/1)
- Albus (50/1)
- Intrepido (55/1)
- Litmus Test (34/1)
- Right To Party (26/1)
- Commandment (7/1)
- Danon Bourbon (14/1)
- So Happy (6/1)
- The Puma (8-1) (SCRATCHED)
- Wonder Dean (20/1)
- Incredibolt (27/1)
- Chief Wallabee (9/1)
- Silent Tactic (SCRATCHED)
- Potente (23/1)
- Emerging Market (11/1)
- Pavlovian (52/1)
- Six Speed (40/1)
- Further Ado (7/1)
- Golden Tempo (36/1)
- Fulleffort (SCRATCHED)
- Great White (29/1)
- Ocelli (50/1)
- AE - Robusta, (50/1 odds)
- AE - Corona de Oro (50/1 odds)
What time does the 2026 Kentucky Derby start?
The 12th race on Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs will start with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET.
What are early reports on the 2026 Kentucky Derby track conditions?
Early Churchill Downs track condition news says the track will be fast and firm, meaning weather is not projected to impact the race significantly.
2026 Kentucky Derby betting favorite
(1) Renegade (5/1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher • Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
If he rises to meet his favored status, the bay colt would become the first entrant in 40 years to win from the rail.
Pletcher leads with 65 Derby appearances and has two wins (Super Saver 2010, Always Dreaming 2017).
Best horse picks to win the 2026 Kentucky Derby
(6) Commandment (7/1)
Trainer: Brad Cox • Jockey: Luis Saez
Lauded for his speed and riding a four-race win streak, Commandment is likely to see many Win-Place-Show bets, at minimum.
Experts commend Commandment's ability to run strongly at any position and point to his November 2025 Churchill Downs win in which he broke his maiden (won his first-ever race) dominant fashion.
Derby contender Commandment hit the track early this morning.
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 25, 2026
What do you think about his work? pic.twitter.com/F4jQdBBO3f
(8) So Happy (6/1)
Trainer: Mark Glatt • Jockey: Mike Smith
Smith, 60, has won this race twice before on Giacomo (2005) and the last Triple Crown-honoree Justify (2018).
The veteran saddled So Happy in winning the April's Santa Anita Derby:
The last Santa Anita Derby winner to also capture the Kentucky Derby? Justify, with Smith atop.
Oh, and Smith also joined the "Elite 11" with Giacomo.
(18) Further Ado (7/1)
Trainer: Brad Cox • Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Mounted by three-time Derby winner and all-time great John R. Velazquez, Ado has ranked among the five shortest odds for most of the week.
That's a justified confidence when you combine Velazquez's successful experience with the colt's penchant for a stalker racing profile.
Observers praise how light on his feet Ado looks in early track practice, which was a concern entering Saturday.
(12) Chief Wallabee (9/1)
Trainer: Bill Mott • Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Chief Wallabee odds were at 12-1 on the Thursday morning lines, meaning this entry has gained steam.
Both trainer and jockey led 2025 Derby winner Sovereignty and are set up well to go back-to-back.
The stalker horse is expected to hang with the early leaders at a respectable distance before kicking in a "closing" style with a strong finish.
(15) Emerging Market (11/1)
Trainer: Chad Brown • Jockey: Flavien Prat
Emerging Market is mounted by a former Derby winner and stalwart performer.
Prat guided Country House to victory in 2019 and has finished on the board as a Win, Place, or Show six out of eight appearances at Churchill Downs.
This resume explains much of the confidence the public and the industry have in backing a horse with only two races total under its belt.
Best Kentucky Derby 2026 betting tickets
$2 EXACTA Box 1-6-8-18
Renegade / Commandment / So Happy / Further Ado
These four horses arguably hold the best running styles to succeed at Churchill Downs.
This Exacta Box positions any combination of these five for a Win-Place (first-place and second-place) finish bet.
$1 TRIFECTA Box 6-8-17-18
Commandment / So Happy / Six Speed / Further Ado
This longshot accounts for the possibility that Six Speed will falter but still Show, at minimum.
I'm OK with any other EXACTA/TRIFECTA combinations that include the following single-ticket picks:
WIN - (6) Commandment (7/1)
Ride the scorching-hot form and the makeup to win the whole thing.
PLACE - (15) Emerging Market
Though inexperienced, Emerging Market's young, successful career will put him on the watch list to win the next two Triple Crown legs, following a huge performance in The Bluegrass State.
SHOW - (9) Chief Wallabee
The late-race charge profile fits for Wallabee to make a running near the end, but it's tough to bet on an exact repeat of trainer-jockey victory in back-to-back years.
SHOW - (17) Six Speed
This plays into the TRIFECTA bet thinking that he'll start fast but ultimately fall short.
Kentucky Derby FAQ
How far do horses run in the Kentucky Derby race?
The Derby race lasts 1 1/4 miles, alternately measured at 10 furlongs or 2,012 meters.
What track surface is the Kentucky Derby run on?
Per the Kentucky Derby's official website, the first leg of the Triple Crown is run on a dirt track that is packed over a solid clay base, designed for grip.
What types of horses run the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is exclusively for three-year-old Thoroughbred horses, comprising colts, geldings, and fillies.
What style of running generally predicts a good Kentucky Derby performance?
Endurance matters in the race that lasts 1 1/4 miles, so horses who generally run with the pack before separating near the end are often favored.
Horses with the truest "stalker" or "closer" profile in the 2026 lot include (12) Chief Wallabee and (18) Further Ado.
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This story was originally published May 2, 2026 at 9:31 AM.