Mariners mailbag: When will this team be playoff-ready? Are Jarred Kelenic and other top prospects arriving soon?
Here we are in the first week of December. The Seattle Seahawks are 10-2 and leading the NFC West with four regular-season games to go, and Russell Wilson is still in the MVP conversation.
Is it safe to assume the Mariners, coming off another sub-.500 finish in September, are the furthest thing from your mind?
Maybe they are, but they shouldn’t be. The annual Winter Meetings and Rule 5 Draft are coming up next week, the Mariners have already made several offseason roster changes — including signing one of their top prospects to a lengthy deal — with more on the horizon. They’ve been letting the kids play, and spring training isn’t too far away.
With all of that in mind, what better time to dig into some questions about the future of baseball in Seattle?
When will the Mariners make the playoffs again? –Brad H., Edgewood
Let’s start this off with the obvious question every longtime Mariners follower wants answered.
By now, it’s no secret that Seattle is the reluctant owner of the longest active postseason drought in major American professional sports. Yes, it’s been almost two full decades, 18 seasons, since the Mariners won a league-best 116 games and made their most recent playoff appearance in 2001.
When the Washington Nationals advanced to — and won — this year’s World Series, Seattle also became the only MLB team that has never even played for a title.
OK, so there’s your painful recap. When will it get better? It seems like the Mariners have been operating on the two-year rebuild plan for about a decade, maybe longer. But, with as active as general manager Jerry Dipoto has been in overhauling Seattle’s minor-league system and acquiring otherwise underused players with potential, this two-year timeline seems more realistic than others have in the past.
The outcome of the 2019 season wasn’t great, but some of the acquisitions Dipoto has made since he took over after the 2015 season, like starting pitcher Marco Gonzales and more recently shortstop J.P. Crawford, have shown growth and sustainability at the big-league level. That they are expected to be key pieces moving forward is promising.
Younger players like Kyle Lewis, Shed Long and Justus Sheffield have already shown potential in much shorter stints in the majors, and all of those top prospects Dipoto has collected, like outfielder Jarred Kelenic, first baseman Evan White and starter Logan Gilbert will be in Seattle sooner rather than later.
Dipoto, manager Scott Servais and others have said 2021 is the year the club expects to make a playoff push, and given how quickly some of these prospects are rising through the farm system, that goal seems possible. And in the meantime, this upcoming season should have less turnover and shouldn’t be as wearisome as the last.
Does Kyle Seager fit in the Mariners’ step-back plan going into this season and beyond, assuming 2021 is still the target year? –Bryan R., University Place
The short answer is yes. Mostly because of his contract, but also partly because of the lack of major-league-ready depth at third base right now, and because having a veteran around to help all of these young players adjust to the big leagues is good for the clubhouse.
Seager is nearing the end of a seven-year, $100 million contract that theoretically keeps him in Seattle through the 2021 season. He has a $15 million club option in 2022 that can increase in value, but it turns into a player option if he’s traded. That’s where it gets tricky. Unless a team has a desperate need for a proven third baseman, they’re not likely to want to take that player option on. And even if another team were on board for a trade, obviously the Mariners would want a substantial return, especially after Seager closed the 2019 season as well as he did at the plate.
Another piece of this is there isn’t an heir apparent at third base in the short term, so there’s not a reason to shop Seager right now anyway. Joe Rizzo is Seattle’s highest-ranked third base prospect at No. 19 (he also plays first base) and has spent the past two seasons with Modesto. Bellingham native Austin Shenton (No. 29) is the only other third base prospect in the Mariners’ top 30, and he was just drafted in June. He did impress in his first season of professional ball and was promoted from Short-A Everett to West Virginia in July, but he isn’t part of the big-league club’s immediate future.
So, it’s hard to imagine the Mariners move Seager before his contract is up, and that’s not a bad thing. He’s an approachable, experienced older player who is willing to give younger teammates advice. Following Felix Hernandez’s departure, he’s also the longest-tenured active Mariner.
How aggressive will the Mariners be with Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert? –Pat G., Tacoma
There’s a good chance you see both Kelenic (Seattle’s top prospect) and Gilbert (No. 3) in the big leagues this season, with Rodriguez (No. 2) likely a bit further off.
Kelenic was not shy when he visited T-Mobile Park in September about detailing what he wants out of the 2020 season.
“At some point, I want to be in the big leagues next year,” he said. “Obviously, it’s not up to me, but at the same time all I can control is going out and playing as hard as I can every single day, and the rest will take care of itself.”
Will he break camp with the big-league team? No, probably not, but Dipoto hasn’t ruled out anything. Kelenic jumped three levels in the minors in 2019, starting the season with Low-A West Virginia, and ending it in Double-A Arkansas, where he hit .253/.315/.542 with six homers and 17 RBI in 21 games. He doesn’t feel far away.
“Jarred is so young that I would have bet against him finishing this year in Double-A, but he did it, and he didn’t just do it, he did it and he was awesome once he got to that level,” Dipoto said in September. “We don’t want to hold him back. … It would be aggressive to say he’s in our Opening Day plans, but we don’t want to shut the door on the possibility that he shows up.”
Gilbert is expected to factor into the Mariners’ rotation at some point during the season, but you probably won’t see him in Seattle until at least the summer. He’s another quick riser in the minors. Like Kelenic, Seattle’s 2018 first-round draft pick made the leap from Low-A to Double-A within the 2019 season and went 4-2 with a 2.88 ERA in nine starts in Arkansas.
Rodriguez missed two months in 2019 with a left-hand injury, but was impressive after returning, ultimately ending the season with High-A Modesto, hitting .462/.514/.738 with 11 extra-base hits, 10 stolen bases and 19 RBI in 17 games. He’ll only be 19 years old when 2020 starts, so expect to see him continue his development in the minors.
Was last year’s hot start a fluke, or is there something you see in this team that they can do it again next year in a more sustainable fashion? –Gary S., Eatonville
I don’t know if I would call it a fluke, but I will say it was surprising, considering how much we talked about the step-back leading up to it, to see the Mariners start the 2019 season with a franchise-best 13-2 record.
Many of the players maintained throughout spring training they didn’t think it had to be a step-back season. There were plenty of guys with substantial big-league experience on the team, and younger guys out to prove something. That, combined with the two wins in Japan and the emotional sendoff of Ichiro, gave the Mariners some momentum out of the gate.
You also have to somewhat consider who their opponents were those first few weeks. Oakland is the only team they faced during that stretch that made it to the playoffs, and only as a Wild Card team, Boston finished a distant third in the AL East, and the Angels, White Sox and Royals all finished well below .500.
I wouldn’t anticipate another ridiculously hot start like last year’s in 2020 — but this is also baseball, so who really knows — but I do think the Mariners will have more sustainable success overall. It just might not come in as big of a spurt as it did early on last year.
What does Scott Servais have to show next year to prove that he is the man moving forward as the manager? –Joe K., Tacoma
The Mariners have approached this rebuild looking for consistent development in their players, and as I detailed above, they’re seeing it with a lot of the guys they’ve picked up in recent years.
If that continues to happen to under Servais’ watch in 2020, it’s going to be considered a successful season regardless of what Seattle’s record on the field may show. I wouldn’t consider this a prove-it season in terms of wins because the target season for a playoff push is still a year out. That said, any statistical improvement after a 68-94 season doesn’t hurt.
Even after a disappointing 2019, Servais does still hold the second-most wins of any manager in Mariners history at 321 in four seasons, trailing only Lou Piniella’s 840. He’s also been around longer than any other manager except for Piniella (10 seasons). That Servais received a multi-year contract extension midway through 2018 shows the club has confidence in him moving forward.
Will we see Daniel Vogelbach return? –Kee M., Seattle
The fan-favorite, left-handed power hitter known by most simply as “Vogey” will be back in Seattle for the 2020 season, barring something unforeseen.
His second half wasn’t as impressive as his first in 2019 — he was the Mariners’ only All-Star selection and belted 30 home runs, but finished hitting just .208/.341/.439 — but he should resume his designated hitter role.
Especially considering the Mariners non-tendered Domingo Santana earlier this week — many speculated the two might platoon the DH role in 2020 and play matchups with Santana offering right-handed power — Vogelbach is the clear choice to return to that spot.
Any remodels happening to T-Mobile Park? –Amber M., Seattle
The club announced in September its plan to spend nearly $30 million in upgrades to the ballpark ahead of the 2020 season. Here are some highlights:
• Expanding the left field gate to add 15 more entry points and replace the ticket office there with more concessions connected to the The ‘Pen.
• Adding a new bar and entertainment space in the Lookout Landing section in left field.
• Adding an elevated rooftop boardwalk for fan viewing and entertainment above the home plate entrance.
• Adding a new seating area with tables in the Terrace Club along the first base line that replaces a net 367 single seats in the section.
• You may have also already seen the very magenta addition to the ballpark’s roof from the freeway. The lights debuted in November and can change colors.
This story was originally published December 5, 2019 at 2:33 PM.
