Mariners notes: Could this be a breakout season for Yusei Kikuchi?
Is Yusei Kikuchi on the verge of a breakout season entering his third year in the majors?
The Mariners certainly believe their hard-throwing, left-handed starter could be.
“There was a lot of underlying information to suggest that a breakout isn’t just possible, that it’s likely based on what he did last year,” Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said on a video call with reporters Friday from Arizona.
“Now, you still have to go out there and do it again, but he has the physical stuff to do it, and I know he’s prepared.”
On a surface level, Kikuchi’s numbers since signing with Seattle ahead of the 2019 season haven’t always suggested success.
His rookie season was a struggle. After impressing through eight professional seasons in his native Japan, Kikuchi labored to a 6-11 record and 5.46 ERA in his 32 starts.
The 29-year-old showed up to Peoria last spring with a refined approach and an intriguing uptick in his velocity, and appeared poised for a more productive sophomore campaign following three spring training starts.
But, then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and put baseball on pause for nearly four months. Kikuchi showed up at summer camp ready to pick up where he left off in Arizona, having continued his rigorous throwing program throughout the shutdown period, but didn’t see a significant jump in numbers in his second season.
He often showed glimpses of the starter he could be — that the Mariners signed to a four-year, $56 million deal in 2019 — but his outings tended to unravel with one rough inning, and he wrapped up nine starts with a 2-4 record and 5.17 ERA.
“Even though he was throwing extremely hard, it would seem like there was that one inning or that one stretch in the game that he would lose fastball command,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “You get behind in the count, and now you’re constantly trying to chase it, and trying to catch up to get back even in the count and get ahead.
“Fastball command, like a lot of pitchers, it really dictates how it’s going to go, and really allows you to keep your pitch count in check. So, that will be the focus for him this spring as we get ready. We’ve talked about it a lot in the offseason with him.”
Despite those shaky stretches, Kikuchi continued to show progress, and wrapped up 2020 with six scoreless innings against the playoff-bound A’s in his final start in September.
It was one of two scoreless outings he pitched in the shortened season that ended with no decision. Oakland walked off in the 10th.
Taking a deeper look at Kikuchi’s 2020 production, the Mariners liked what they saw.
“Even in the Sabermetric world, the easiest thing you can do is look at the numbers under the hood to find the most likely breakout candidates,” Dipoto said. “In whatever of those numbers you look at, if you are a third party who doesn’t watch the Mariners every day, or has not seen Yusei Kikuchi, if you just open up a public site, pick up Fangraphs and dig into what Yusei did last year, he is going to stand out as a potential breakout character.
“A lot of his underlying work — the strikeouts, the walks, the ground ball rates, the home run suppression, the FIP — everything that he was doing suggested that he should be experiencing more success.
“I don’t know that we had a single pitcher that was probably more unlucky than Yusei last year. Some of it was due to a bullpen that didn’t do him a ton of favors with the runners he left on, and some was just that — luck. Some combination of an improved bullpen, and if we get the same type of stuff and execution out of Yusei, we feel like that stands to be a positive thing. I know it’s been an inconsistent couple of years, albeit one truncated season, but we love his stuff. Nobody works harder.”
Kikuchi said Friday through his interpreter he feels confident entering his third big league spring training, and accomplished his primary offseason objectives of refining command of all of his pitches and simplifying his mechanics.
“I’m overall very confident going in,” he said.
Servais noted after watching Kikuchi’s first bullpen session of the spring Friday his third-year starter looks more calm and comfortable.
“His pitches are all there,” Servais said. “The velocity, it’s up like it has been in the past. The command of his stuff, (he’s) in control of his body, and not just trying to maybe throw as hard as he can or snap off the nastiest slider that he can. That was really good to see yesterday.
“Like I said, very comfortable, very confident in what he’s doing. … That’s what probably looked a little bit different yesterday is how under control and how confident and comfortable he seemed.”
Kikuchi hasn’t slowed his throwing and he continues to work at progressing in his third season.
“He works endlessly,” catcher Tom Murphy said. “I don’t think this guy stops throwing a day out of the year. It’s remarkable. You look at him down in the tunnel between innings, and he’s out there throwing. Even on his start days. I don’t think people understand or appreciate how much hard work this guy puts into his game, but it shows every year.
“He shows up to spring training, he’s in midseason form already. It’s unbelievable. The guy deserves a ton of credit for how much work and how much time he puts into his craft.”
WARMING UP
Several of Seattle’s pitchers have tossed their first bullpen sessions of spring training since reporting Wednesday. Here’s a quick look at who has already thrown:
Thursday: Chris Flexen, Marco Gonzales, Ljay Newsome, Brady Lail, Matt Magill, Kendall Graveman, Keynan Middleton, Wyatt Mills, Anthony Misiewicz, Casey Sadler, Will Vest.
Friday: Kikuchi, Andres Munoz, Justus Sheffield, Nick Margevicius, Sam Delaplane, Drew Steckenrider, Taylor Guerrieri.
Saturday: Justin Dunn, James Paxton, Logan Gilbert, Juan Then, J.T. Chargois.
ROSTER MOVES
The Mariners confirmed the signings of two pitchers this week, including the return of Paxton to their rotation, and the addition of Ken Giles to the bullpen.
Paxton, who spent the first six seasons of his major league career with Seattle, is returning on a reported one-year, $8.5 million deal, and will slot into the Mariners’ six-man rotation.
Giles has reportedly signed on with the club for two seasons with a club option for 2023. Servais confirmed Friday the veteran closer won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October.
“There is no chance of that happening,” Servais said. “We will not let that happen.”
Munoz, who is also recovering from elbow surgery, was placed on the 60-day injured list, and right-hander Robert Dugger was designated for assignment in corresponding roster moves to make room for Paxton and Giles.
Seattle’s 40-man roster remains full at 40 players.
This story was originally published February 20, 2021 at 5:55 PM.
