Russell Wilson has three of NFL’s most improbable completions this season
Maybe Baltimore’s stupendous Lamar Jackson will indeed be the league’s MVP.
Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is already, certifiably the NFL’s MIP.
The league’s Most Improbable Player did it again at Philadelphia.
NFL NextGen Stats, the league’s analytics arm backed by Zebra Technologies using on-field player tracking statistics, says Wilson’s trick-play touchdown pass to Malik Turner in the first half of Sunday’s win over the Eagles was the most improbable completion of week 12 in the NFL.
More than that, entering Monday night’s game between his Seahawks (9-2) and Minnesota (8-3), Wilson has three completions with a probability of success below 15 percent this season.
The rest of the league’s quarterbacks have four such throws. Combined.
Wilson’s latest improbable strike was exquisite.
Turner is an undrafted rookie last year from Illinois who has gained beyond-his-years trust with Wilson in his first two seasons. He deserves credit for the ridiculous play, too. And for more than just his difficult, over-the-shoulder catch.
The play call, a rare trick one for an offense under coach Pete Carroll, was designed for Turner run from right to left across the field during the throwback pass from running back Chris Carson to Wilson. Turner’s planned route was toward the left sideline, away from opposite-side cornerback Jalen Mills. But Eagles safety Rodney McLeod alertly read and jumped Turner’s crossing route as he arrived through the middle.
On the fly, Turner read that and changed his route that was supposed to be horizontal and cross Mills’ face. He ran vertically, an improvisational cross-into-go route down the center of the field. He split Milles, who was beaten behind Turner. And he split McLeod, who by then had overcommitted to Turner running flatter as designed to the sideline.
Wilson read what Turner was doing. He lofted a perfect ball over the two defenders and plopped it over Turner’s shoulders and onto his hands. That allowed Turner to run away from the defenders into the ball in the end zone for Seattle’s only touchdown of the first three quarters Sunday.
“Malik really did a great job because he’s really running a get-open route, really. He’s trying to get to an open spot,” Wilson said. “He did a great job because all week we kind of crossed in the guy’s face. McLeod did a great job staying outside of him and forcing him up the field.
“It was kind of those two defenders right there and I just tried to throw it through the wind on a line to him and he made a great catch in the back of the end zone.
“I mean, it was just beautiful. Beautiful orchestration of what we wanted to do.”
Ah, yes, the wind. The NFL’s fancy NextGen Stats didn’t take into consideration that aspect of the play. It’s using on-field data such as distance of the receiver to the defender, time the ball is in flight, angles and other measurements.
But a constant, 17-mile-per-hour wind that was gusting to perhaps twice that speed into the open end of Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia directly into Wilson’s face?
That’s what makes his throw to Turner magnificent.
That makes it one of the most impressive of the 241 touchdown passes Wilson has thrown in the regular season and playoffs during his eight seasons.
The fierce, chilling wind in Philadelphia blew Wilson’s sure-touchdown pass to wide-open Jacob Hollister. With the wind at Wilson’s back, his simple flip off a scramble NextGen Stats need not compute for probability flew far over the tight end’s end in the end zone.
Wilson had a second would-be touchdown pass on a deep post route go off rookie DK Metcalf’s hands at the same goal line, end zone opposite of Turner’s touchdown. On that pass, the wind blew the ball to the right away from Metcalf just as it arrived to him.
Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz had two passes to lonely receivers sail on him in similar ways Sunday with the wind also at his back in the first quarter.
Seahawks All-Pro punter Michael Dickson shanked a punt 27 yards in the first quarter kicking into that gale. He said after the game that the ball basically fell off his foot, that the wind pushed it left after he dropped it the few feet from his hand to his cleat.
This is what Wilson threw into on that most improbable touchdown pass to Turner.
His pass cut into that wind, yet stayed true and precise over the entire 40 yards it was in flight.
Again, this is nothing new for Wilson. In week five, the Thursday night game against the Los Angeles Rams at CenturyLink Field, he connected with Tyler Lockett for what NFL NextGen Stats said was the most unlikely touchdown pass in two years.
NextGen computed Wilson scrambled a total of 24.7 yards—the equivalent of a quarter of the field—before throwing that pass. Lockett was 0.2 yards from the sideline and 1.1 yards from the back line of the end zone when he leaned and toed and astounded with that catch.
Another example of the abnormal being, well, normal for Wilson.
This story was originally published November 27, 2019 at 7:02 AM.
