Off base? Seahawks have more reasons to be in a 4-3 defense less often this season
Pete Carroll and the Seahawks stayed in base defense more than anybody in the pass-a-rama, sub-packaged NFL last year.
And the results were basically bad.
The Seahawks dropped from 11th in the NFL in total defense in 2018 to 26th in 2019. Seattle allowed 382 yards and 25 points per game last year. In 2018, playing nickel with Justin Coleman on more than 60 percent of their defensive plays, the Seahawks allowed 30 fewer yards and three fewer points per game than they surrendered last season.
What’s the big deal over allowing a field goal more per game, on average? Seattle had four games decided by three points or fewer in 2019. That doesn’t count two more overtime games. The Seahawks may have won those in regulation had their defense not given up those extra yards and extra three points, on average.
That’s six games. Win half of those, or even two of them, and the Seahawks would have won the NFC West. They would have had home playoff games, instead of trudging to Philadelphia and Green Bay in January. They would have had a far more direct and easy path back to the Super Bowl last season.
So, will the Seahawks play so much base 4-3, more than anyone else in pro football, again this year?
“We’ll see on that one. We’ve got real good stats on it, so that we know what we got out of what we did,” Carroll said last week.
“But, overall, we weren’t as effective as we’ve been.”
According to Football Outsiders, in 2018, for the first time, NFL teams played nickel more than 60 percent of downs versus just 25 percent of plays in base defense. In 2019, the league was in base defense with four defensive backs for just 28.2 percent of snaps. Teams were out of base and used five or six defensive backs on 72.8 percent of plays last year, per an analysis by Pro Football Focus.
The Seahawks? They were out of base defense just 31.2 percent of the time. Every other NFL team used extra defensive backs at least 30 percent more than Seattle did.
The Seahawks’ reasons for so much base defense last season?
Carroll and defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. trusted All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner, Pro Bowl veteran K.J. Wright and Seattle’s linebacker corps as the strength of their defense.
And they didn’t trust their nickel back.
Last spring, standout Justin Coleman signed with Detroit for $9 million per year in free agency. That was a record for a nickel DB. To replace him, the Seahawks signed former Cleveland Browns starter Jamar Taylor. They tried Taylor at nickel during the preseason and early season. He failed. They released Taylor in November. The Seahawks tried reserve Akeem King. Then they settled for the end of the season on rookie draft choice Ugo Amadi at nickel and King when they went dime, or six defensive backs.
Carroll more often chose to keep linebackers Wagner, Wright and Mychal Kendricks on the field the majority of the time in lieu of that untrusted fifth defensive back with only two linebackers.
The result: offensive play-callers exploited Kendricks on down-the-field pass routes by bigger and sometimes faster, extra receivers, often from the slot—the receiver a nickel would have been covering.
Then in the playoffs, when the Seahawks did go nickel, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers expertly exploited the rookie Amadi on key third downs over the middle. Those crushing first downs kept Seattle from coming all the way back in its season-ending loss to the Packers, 28-23.
“What you are asking is: We played base defenses versus nickel offenses, at times,” Carroll said.
“We played those packages better than the nickel packages in the years past. But has that complemented all of our game and prepared us for all of our game? That’s the decision we’ll make as we see our players fit in.”
An overlooked, corollary reason why the Seahawks didn’t play much nickel last season: the Seahawks lacked speedy, nickel pass rushers. Former Pro Bowl defensive end Ziggy Ansah, who signed for one year and up to $9 million before last season, was injured. He gave Seattle little. Top draft choice L.J. Collier got a rare high foot and ankle sprain in the first days of training camp. That almost landed him on injured reserve. After he returned he was a healthy scratch for five games. Those were two zeroes at defensive end.
By December, top edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney was missing three of the final five regular-season games with a core injury that required surgery in January. He played with the pain in Seattle’s two playoff games.
Only sub-.500 Miami had fewer sacks in the NFL last season than Seattle’s 28 in 16 games.
Why the Seahawks are likely to be in nickel defense more in 2020
1. They have more, and better, options to play there.
The Seahawks’ trade this offseason for top Washington cornerback Quinton Dunbar means if Dunbar gets through his debated felony charges for alleged armed robbery in Florida, Seattle will have the option of using Dunbar, Pro Bowl cornerback Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers on the field at the same time. Flowers had the cornerback job opposite Griffin the last two seasons.
2. They can be more creative.
The Seahawks could go NBA-style defense, matching up the 6-foot-2 Dunbar and/or the 6-3 Flowers inside against bigger slot receivers, or perhaps the 6-foot Griffin inside against smaller slot guys.
3. They are prepping impressive Marquise Blair for the nickel job.
Carroll and Norton have been scheming during their virtual offseason to unleash Blair in a new role this year: as a bigger nickel DB.
The 6-1, 196-pound Blair showed last preseason and in regular-season practices why the Seahawks drafted him in the second round last year. He can be a physical force wherever the Seahawks find a place to use him. But his chance to start ended after Seattle traded for safety Quandre Diggs at the end of October.
Unless Diggs or Bradley McDouglad get hurt, Blair won’t be starting at free safety or strong safety, his college positions at Utah.
But Carroll said last week Blair is a possibility at nickel. He is part of the coach’s quest to explore bigger options than the 5-9 Amadi as the fifth defensive back this year.
“Yes. Yes. As a matter of fact, he is a guy that we are very interested in, in finding a role for him,” Carroll said. “We’ve already mapped that out.
“He’s got real special talent that we want to find a spot for him, not just to go on and complement the safety play that he’s going to play.
“So in the nickel package he is going to get a lot of consideration to contribute in some additional ways. Because he’s unique and got some special stuff.”
4. They appear to have more pass rushers to play sub packages on third downs.
We’ll, and they’ll, find out if they are more effective.
The Seahawks let Ansah go in free agency, where he remains unsigned. Quinton Jefferson, who often rushed inside on passing downs, signed with Buffalo. Clowney is waiting until team facilities open — they’ve been closed since March because of the pandemic — so he can get physical examinations from other teams that might give him contract offers to leverage the one he has from Seattle for 2020.
Clowney is returning in August on a one-year contract and re-trying free agency again in 2021 when there may not be the crushing effects of a pandemic and him coming off surgery in January remains a possibility.
Even if he doesn’t come back, this is Collier’s chance to show why the Seahawks drafted him in the first round last year. Carroll said Collier and Rasheem Green, who flourished next to Clowney with a team-high four sacks last season, will be the inside pass rushers in nickel situations. That’s because Seattle signed veterans Bruce Irvin and Benson Mayowa to play ends and rush the passer on third downs. Each is coming off his career high in sacks last year, with Carolina and Oakland, respectively.
The Seahawks then traded up to draft Darrell Taylor in the second round and selected Alton Robinson in the fifth this spring to be outside edge rushers. Irvin, Mayowa, Taylor and Robinson are four more options than Seattle had last year to pressure QBs.
“So when we get back on the field and we see how things fit together ... a big part of that was some of the players that we had,” Carroll said of so much base defense in 2019.
“You know, we’ve always tried to draw from the strengths of our players. And that was one of the reasons that we did that last year.”
This story was originally published June 17, 2020 at 5:30 AM.
