Mariners roster projection, Feb. 29: Who has impressed in Cactus League play?

Let’s start these roster projections off by making something clear — Seattle Mariners major league camp is still full. Every locker in the clubhouse is still occupied, and no official cuts have been made a week into Cactus League play.

There are plenty of battles left to play out over the next month.

We’re just going to take a crack at predicting the Opening Day roster anyway. In fact, we’ll do it every Saturday morning until the end of spring training, when the final 26-man roster is set.

Here’s what we think it will look like on Feb. 29, with four weeks to go before the Mariners open at home against the Rangers:

STARTING ROTATION (5)

LHP Marco Gonzales

LHP Yusei Kikuchi

RHP Kendall Graveman

LHP Justus Sheffield

RHP Taijuan Walker

The skinny: Gonzales is a lock to make his second consecutive Opening Day start after spending so much of Seattle’s bumpy 2019 season righting the ship every five days. The Mariners are committed to the 28-year-old lefty, and signed him to a four-year extension earlier this month to prove it. Kikuchi has already made strides this spring, ramping up his velocity and harnessing his command, after an uneven rookie season, and will resume his regular role in the rotation. The Mariners signed Graveman, who is making his way back from Tommy John surgery, in November and slotted him into their rotation immediately. He looked healthy in his first spring training start Tuesday. Seattle saw enough of Sheffield last summer to believe the 23-year-old is ready to make the jump to a full time role in the majors. Walker has returned to the club that drafted him as a free agent, signing a one-year contract the day pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria. The Mariners are taking it slow with his journey back from Tommy John, but he’s scheduled to make his first spring training start next week. With these five inked into the rotation, that leaves 24-year-old rookie Justin Dunn as the sixth option, likely looking at starting the season with Triple-A Tacoma. Top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert is in the rotation mix in camp as well, but the Mariners don’t expect to debut him in the majors until at least this summer.

CATCHERS (2)

Tom Murphy

Austin Nola

The skinny: Neither of these catchers was on Seattle’s Opening Day roster a season ago. Murphy was acquired in a trade with the Giants after the Mariners returned from their two-game series in Japan. Nola was a non-roster invite at camp last year, and appeared in several games, but started the season with Triple-A Tacoma. He made his major league debut last June at 29 years old. Both will open the season with the Mariners later this month — and both have plenty to offer. Murphy will be the primary catcher after his impressive work helping develop Seattle’s pitchers last season, when he was splitting time with Omar Narvaez, who has since been traded to Milwaukee. Nola, a converted catcher who the Mariners believe is one of the best receivers in baseball, will back Murphy up and has ample infield experience, too. Both have productive bats.

INFIELDERS (6)

1B Evan White

2B Shed Long

SS J.P. Crawford

3B Kyle Seager

UTIL Dee Gordon

UTIL Tim Lopes

The skinny: This is a big area for the Mariners’ youth movement. White signed an unprecedented six-year extension with the club in November, though he has yet to appear in a big league game. His defensive skills are as advertised, and his bat started coming around during the first week of spring training games before he was temporarily shut down with a minor groin issue Wednesday. When he makes his way back into the lineup, he’ll get every opportunity to play for Seattle this spring and in the regular season. Long will also get an extended look as Seattle’s starting second baseman after wowing the Mariners with his bat as a rookie. He’s also projected as the everyday leadoff hitter. Long’s promotion pushes veteran second baseman Dee Gordon into more of a utility role this season. He could appear at second, short or even in the outfield. With the expansion to 26-man rosters, the Mariners can carry an additional player, and my guess is they bring on a second utility option. Lopes is my early pick. He’s refusing to be overlooked this spring with five doubles and six RBI in his first four games. Lopes played for Seattle in the second half last season, and proved a reliable infielder and serviceable outfielder. Last year’s utility player, Dylan Moore, is also in the mix. He was putting together a nice spring, and had already belted a homer, before he was put into concussion protocol this week after colliding with an opposing player’s knee during a stolen base attempt. Seattle also likes Sam Haggerty and Patrick Wisdom as infield options. Haggerty has done a little bit of everything on the field, while Wisdom has mostly played third during his career. Crawford and Seager, now the longest-tenured Mariner, will keep their usual spots in Seattle’s infield.

OUTFIELDERS (4)

Mallex Smith

Kyle Lewis

Jake Fraley

Braden Bishop

The skinny: Mitch Haniger’s ongoing injury woes have opened up the outfield competition in spring camp. Smith will continue to play center field, but the other two spots are there for the taking. Lewis produced offensively at a stunning rate during his month-long stint with the Mariners last September, and the rookie is expected to claim one of those jobs. He’s been tried out in both left and right field so far this spring. Fraley is my pick to nab the third starting job in the outfield. Like he did in camp last spring, he’s already got his bat going, and the Mariners are hoping to see more of what he can do after a sprained thumb cut his audition with the big league club short last fall. Bishop is another contender with solid defensive skills, but the Mariners need to see his bat warm up for him to move into an everyday role. The Mariners have plenty more outfielders in camp they can also choose from, including Carlos Gonzalez and Jose Siri. Top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are also racking up playing time this spring, but don’t expect to see them in Seattle for a while.

DESIGNATED HITTER (1)

Daniel Vogelbach

The skinny: Vogelbach was Seattle’s lone All-Star selection last season thanks to a hot first half, but his bat cooled off after the break. The Mariners will give him the chance to get back in the swing of things offensively this spring. He’s hitting .444 through four Cactus League appearances.

BULLPEN (8)

RHP Dan Altavilla

LHP Nestor Cortes

RHP Carl Edwards Jr.

RHP Yoshihisa Hirano

RHP Matt Magill

RHP Yohan Ramirez

RHP Erik Swanson

RHP Sam Tuivailala

The skinny: This group is the trickiest to predict with about 30 options in camp. Altavilla is out of options, and hasn’t found the consistency the Mariners would like, but when he’s on, he’s on. I think the club gives him another chance if he has a productive spring. Cortes adds a left-handed arm, and can go multiple innings, which Seattle is always looking for. Edwards is proven in the majors, but has dealt with injuries. Hirano is the oldest player in camp, and has the experience. He’s a late innings arm and maybe a closer candidate down the road. The Mariners picked up Magill last season and like what he brings in the later innings. Ramirez is Seattle’s Rule 5 draftee from December, so he’ll get plenty of opportunity. Swanson was a starter when the Mariners traded for him, but was much more effective out of the bullpen last year, with the ability to go multiple innings. Tuivailala looked strong for Seattle after returning from injury last season. There are other contenders like Brandon Brennan, a former Rule 5 pickup with an impressive changeup and lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who has starting experience. Some younger arms like Sam Delaplane, Taylor Gilbeau and Joey Gerber are having nice springs so far, but probably don’t crack the roster. Austin Adams, one of Seattle’s more reliable relievers, who is on the 60-day injured list recovering from season-ending knee surgery in September.

This story was originally published February 29, 2020 at 9:08 AM.

Lauren Smith

The News Tribune

360-754-5473

Lauren Smith is a sports reporter at The News Tribune. She has covered high school sports for TNT and The Olympian, as well as the Seattle Mariners and Washington Huskies. She is a graduate of UW and Emerald Ridge High School.